摘要
湖南生猪生产波动实证研究所用考察指标是湖南猪年底头数增长率。按照“谷—谷”法划分 ,从195 3— 1999年的 4 7年中 ,湖南生猪生产波动共呈现出 9个周期。纵向上 ,改革前后湖南生猪生产是由剧烈波动转向平缓 ,但是改革以来湖南生猪生产却呈现增长水平下降趋势 ,生产后劲不足 ,无疑将不利于湖南农业的稳定增长。横向上 ,湖南生猪生产波动剧烈程度低于全国生猪生产波动 ,湖南生猪生产比全国生猪生产具有更大的稳定性。
The empirical research on Hunan's pig-breeding fluctuations take Hunan's pig growth rate at the end of year as index. According to the method of 'valley to valley', Hunan's pig-breeding fluctuations appeared 9 cycles during 47 years from 1953-1999. Looking vertically, Hunan's pig-breeding turned roughness into smoothness after reform. But the growth rate of Hunan's pig-breeding tended to decline and its insufficient potency would be disadvantageous to Hunan's agriculture. Looking horizontally, the fluctuation range of Hunan's pig-breeding was lower than that of the whole nation while the stability of Hunan's pig-breeding was greater than that of the whole nation.
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第1期120-124,共5页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目 (0 1JJY2 0 69)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会 2 0 0 1- 2 0 0 2年立项资助课题 (2 0 10 13 B)
关键词
湖南
生猪生产
实证研究
波动幅度
波动系数
相关系数
农业
Pig-breeding fluctuations
growth rate
fluctuation range
the coefficient of fluctuation
correlation coefficient
