摘要
文章通过对车站客流数据的分析,认为火车站作为一个系统,是本征性灰色的,故选择使用灰色预测方法,对春运客流量做出预测,并根据实际预测结果对基本模型进行了优化:选择优化参数a,采用残差预测模型,新陈代谢模型等方法,解决了预测精度和可信度的问题。实际数据表明,预测结果是可信的。
According to the analysis of the passenger flux data, we draw a conclusion that the railway station is an essential gray system. Therefore, we choose the gray forecast method to predict the passengers flux during the Spring Festival and propose several measures to optimize the basic forecast model. The optimized parameter a has been chosen. The error-corrected model and new information model etc have been used. The actual data indicate that the forecast result is correct.
出处
《广东自动化与信息工程》
2002年第4期1-4,共4页
Guangdong Automation & Information Engineering
关键词
灰色预测方法
铁路
春运
客流量
残差
The Transportation of Spring Festival
Passenger Flux
Gray System
Forecast Model
Remained Error
Optimize
