摘要
本文利用灰色拓扑预测方法,根据华北地震区(34—42°N,104—124°E)第四活跃期以来的地震应变能释放的应变曲线,对应变曲线未来波形的发展变化建立了灰色拓扑预测模型群。绘制了1990—2020年华北地震区地震应变能释放的拓扑预测曲线,该曲线在1999、2013年有二个峰值,释放的应变能将≥44×10~6 J^(1/2)(相当≥7.0级地震所释放的应变能),在1992、2002和2014年有三个次峰值,释放的应变能将≥18×10~6~ J^(1/2)(相当≥6.5级地震所释放的应变能),在1993、1996、2000、2003、2006、2010、2017和2020年有几个小峰值,释放的应变能将≥7.9×10~6 J^(1/2)(相当于6.0级地震释放的应变能)。
According to the strain curve of the seismic strain energy release since the 4th active period in the seismic areas, North China, this paper established a grey topological forecasting model group ωi(1) for the development and variation of the future waveform of the strain curve using the grey topological ferecast method. The topological forecasting curve of the seismic strain energy release in seismic areas, North China in 1990-2020 was drawn, this curve has two peak values in 1999 and 2013, respectively. The strain energy released will be ≥ 44×106J1/2 (equals to the strain energy released by a M ≥ 7.0 earthquake). There will be 3 secondary peak values in 1992, 2002, and 2014, the strain energy released will be 18 × 106J1/2 (equals to the strain energy released by a M ≥ 6.5 earthquake). There will be several small peak values in 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2017 and 2020, the strain energy released will be 7.9 × 106J1/2 (equals to the stain energy released by a M≥ 6.0 earthquake).
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第6期44-50,共7页
Earthquake
