摘要
首先将大型复杂系统分为系统元件、系统单元和整个系统三个层次。针对在大型系统的抗震可靠性分析中,需要大量的基本元件数据,提出了利用大量已经进行的抗震基础研究的分析结果。针对现有的抗震可靠性分析的基础资料存在的时间跨越大,采用的分析方法往往有很大的差别表达形式不统一等问题,提出了在一定的数据检验基础上,采用贝叶斯统计理论,将已有的分析结果与历史震害资料相结合的方法,对系统单元的数据进行复核与校准。这样给出的系统单元数据更加合理。
This paper discusses the data processing in the seismic reliability analysis of large scale system. The large scale system is divided into three level, namely system element, system unit and whole system. Because a large amount data to be processed for the seismic reliability analysis of a large scale system, this paper suggests a method to make use of the analyses results of fundamental research that large quantity processed already pan out. Aim at the problem of existed basic data have been got for a long time, and analyzed by different methods and expressed in various form, therefore the data are examined firstly. Then the Bayes statistics theory is adopted to compute the posterior results of earthquake disaster. These results are taken to calibrate and modify the former computed data. This method combines the historic and predicted data of earthquake disasters, so it is more reasonable.
出处
《世界地震工程》
CSCD
2002年第4期96-101,共6页
World Earthquake Engineering
基金
河南省自然科学基金项目(994040800)
关键词
系统可靠性分析
大系统抗震
贝叶斯理论
数据分析
system reliability analysis
seismic analysis of large scale system
Bayes theory
data processing
