摘要
首次利用气候模式作了跨年度的针对冬季和春季气候异常形势的预测试验。预测结果显示 ,今冬的气候特点为 ,我国北方降水正常 ,南方略偏多 ,气温在我国全境基本为正常 ,因此 ,不会出现暖冬现象 ,而欧亚大陆北部则为明显的暖冬。预测结果还表明 ,明春我国西北、华北、东北降水正常 ,其他地区略多 ,全国气温均较正常 ,因此 ,明春的沙尘暴形势如常 ,不会出现超出常年的春季沙尘暴形势。但由于近些年的气候变化趋势使然 ,明春的沙尘暴仍可能在局部时空段内相当严重。
This paper reports the first GCM-based prediction experiment results on the winter climate and spring dust climate several months ahead of the time. The ensemble prediction shows that the forthcoming winter will have normal precipitation in the North and slightly more precipitation in the South, and normal temperature in the countrywide. Therefore, it will not be the warm winter in China. In comparison, the North Eurasia will have a warm winter. Precipitation will be normal in Northwest, Central North, and Northeast in the next spring, and other parts will have a little more precipitation. The temperature will be normal in most areas. In accordance, North China will face normal, instead of stronger, dust storm occurrence. However, due to the recent enhancement tendency, strong dust storm occurrence will be still possible.
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第1期136-140,共5页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家杰出青年基金项目 4 0 1 2 5 0 1 4
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX2 -2 0 3
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1 9980 4 0 90 5共同资助
关键词
气候异常
沙尘气候
模式预测
climate anomaly
dust storm climate
model prediction
