摘要
应用奇异值分解 (SVD)技术研究了青藏高原地面加热场与高原上空 1 0 0hPa高度场及其东侧川渝地区夏季降水场的时空联系和旱涝预测的关系。结果表明 :地面加热场与高度场的第一模态代表了两场间的主要耦合特征 ,具有高度的时空相关 ;前期青藏高原地面加热场通过影响后期高原上空 1 0 0hPa高度场 ,导致未来高原东侧川渝地区夏季降水异常 ;加热场—高度场—降水场之间的这种非同步关系 ,反映了川渝地区旱涝灾害的影响因子和物理成因 ;前期高原地面加热场与前期 1 0 0hPa高度场SVD第一模态的变化 ,是高原东侧地区未来夏季旱涝异常的预测信号。并由此提出了一种基于SVD技术的旱涝预测思路。
Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique, the relationships between surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and 100 hPa height field and summer rainfall in Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality (SPCM) at its eastern side and the prediction of drought-flood are studied. The result shows that the first modes derived from SVD indicate the key coupled characteristics of the heating and the height fields with closely time-space correlation. The previous surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau, by influencing 100 hPa height field over it, results in the anomalies of summer rainfall in SPCM at its eastern side. This asynchronous connection between heating and height and rainfall fields indicates the influence factors and physical reasons for drought-flood disaster in SPCM. The variation of the first modes derived from SVD with the previous surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and 100 hPa height field is a strong signal for the prediction of summer drought-flood anomalies in SPCM at the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau. Thereby, it is put forward that a train of thought for prediction of drought-flood based on SVD technique.
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第1期107-114,共8页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1 9980 4 0 90 0第一部分
四川省科技厅重点科技项目 2 0 0 0 -0 3-2 1
国家"九五"科技攻关项目 96-90 8-0 5 -0 5专题共同资助
关键词
地面加热
青藏高原
大气环流
旱涝
奇异值分解
雪盖
Tibetan Plateau
atmospheric circulation
drought-flood
singular value decomposition
