摘要
在湖泊水环境保护治理中,提前掌握未来一周湖体水质变化趋势并识别潜在风险,是争取应急处置时间的关键。针对现有研究对湖体关键生物地球化学过程通量定量表征与动态预测薄弱的问题,以气象预报为驱动,依托洱海流域-湖体耦合模型为计算内核,耦合数据同化算法实时修正水质模拟轨迹,对水质与营养盐通量进行短期预测与定量分析。结果表明:①耦合数据同化的洱海流域-湖体耦合模型模拟精度较高,率定后水位模拟决定系数(R2)和纳什效率系数(NSE)分别达0.97、0.96,TN、TP、COD平均相对误差分别为11.4%、14.7%、5.8%。②洱海水质时空分布特征显著,夏季TN、COD浓度显著升高,分别为0.51~0.90、15.99~22.09 mg/L,冬季TP浓度偏高,为0.023~0.034 mg/L,空间上均呈现北部、南部湖区高,中北部至中南部湖区低的格局。③洱海营养盐净通量季节差异明显,春、秋、冬季湖体表现为氮源,夏季为氮汇;春、夏、秋季为磷汇,冬季为磷源。研究显示,所构建的预测方法可精准表征洱海周尺度水质时空演变与营养盐循环过程,可为湖泊短期水质预警及精准治理提供有效技术手段。
In the protection and management of lake water environments,accurately capturing the variation trends of lake water quality and identifying potential risks in advance are crucial for securing sufficient time for emergency response.Addressing the limitations of existing studies in the quantitative characterization and dynamic prediction of key biogeochemical processes fluxes in lakes,this study develops a weekly-scale prediction method for water quality and nutrient process fluxes in Erhai Lake.Driven by meteorological forecasts,the proposed approach employs a coupled Erhai Lake watershed-lake model as the computational core and integrates a data assimilation algorithm to continuously correct the simulated water-quality trajectories in real time.This framework enables short-term prediction and quantitative analysis of water-quality and nutrient fluxes.The results show that:(1)The coupled watershed-lake model with data assimilation demonstrates high simulation accuracy.After calibration,the coefficient of determination(R2)and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)for water level simulation reach 0.97 and 0.96,respectively,while the average relative errors of total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP),and chemical oxygen demand(COD)are 11.4%,14.7%,and 5.8%,respectively.(2)The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of water quality in Erhai Lake are significant.TN and COD are significantly higher in summer,with values of 0.51-0.90 mg/L and 15.99-22.09 mg/L,respectively,whereas TP concentrations are relatively high in winter,with a value of 0.023-0.034 mg/L.Spatially,the concentrations of the three indicators are higher in the northern and southern lake areas and lower in the mid-northern to midsouthern lake areas.(3)The seasonal differences in nutrient net fluxes of Erhai Lake are obvious:the lake functions as a nitrogen source in spring,autumn,and winter,but as a nitrogen sink in summer,while it acts as a phosphorus sink in spring,summer,and autumn,and a phosphorus source in winter.The study shows that the constructed prediction method can accurately characterize the weekly-scale spatiotemporal evolution of water quality and nutrient cycling processes in Erhai Lake,providing an effective technical tool for short-term water quality early warning and precise lake management.
作者
杜思靠
张晓玲
邹锐
马文静
赵健
宋永会
刘永
DU Sikao;ZHANG Xiaoling;ZOU Rui;MA Wenjing;ZHAO Jian;SONG Yonghui;LIU Yong(Institute of Water Ecological Environment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Peking University,Beijing 100091,China;Ruisi Computational Intelligence Laboratory,Dali 671000,China;Nanjing Innowater Environmental Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China)
出处
《环境科学研究》
北大核心
2026年第4期924-936,共13页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(No.2021YFC3201500)
中国环境科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所青年探索项目(No.2025YSKY-18)。
关键词
洱海
水质
营养盐通量
数据同化
流域-湖体耦合模型
Lake Erhai
water quality prediction
nutrient flux
data-assimilation
watershed-lake coupling model
