摘要
The intensifying convergence of climate change,biodiversity loss,pollution,and land-system transformation is giving rise to environmental risks that are no longer local,linear,or isolated.Instead,they manifest as systemic threats-emergent,nonlinear,and cascading across ecological,economic,and institutional boundaries.These risks arise from feedback loops,threshold effects,and hidden interdependencies within tightly coupled human-environment systems,rendering conventional risk assessment frameworks inadequate.Yet,despite decades of progress in environmental monitoring and regulation,dominant risk management paradigms remain largely hazard-centric,built to quantify individual stressors,extrapolate past trends,and respond after exceedances occur.They therefore tend to fail precisely where stakes are highest:in anticipating abrupt regime shifts,cross-sectoral spillovers,and compound crises that transcend spatial,temporal,and governance bound-aries.Addressing this challenge demands a paradigm shift:from singlehazard analysis toward integrated,cross-scale,and anticipatory science capable of capturing complexity,propagation,and surprise.
