摘要
为科学评估综合枢纽集群的对外交通网络韧性,提出了行程韧性测度指标,涵盖了鲁棒性、冗余性、恢复性3个维度;运用多模式交通网络客流分配方法刻画了不同的节点攻击和恢复策略的影响结果,构建了行程韧性测度方法;以京津冀城市群内综合客运枢纽集群为例,开展实例验证。研究结果表明:京津冀城市群与上海、广州、成都等典型城市群核心城市之间的对外综合交通网络已基本成型,整体表现出较强的抗干扰与恢复能力,在不同扰动场景下单位行程韧性普遍高于0.95;以10月7日(国庆节)单节点恢复时长1 h为例,节点强度恢复策略的网络恢复效果最优,网络韧性达0.9902,受影响人数仅1402人次,显著优于其他策略;早间时段因网络负荷大、班次冗余度低,导致韧性下降至0.9761,低于午间、晚间;大部分情况下,网络韧性随着单节点恢复时长的增加而递减,受影响人数也随之增多;从不同日期来看,韧性受客流分布离散程度和网络冗余度共同影响,按TOPSIS方法排序,国庆韧性最高为0.9832,周末韧性最低为0.9746。提出的韧性评估方法可为分析枢纽间铁路、民航和城市交通等多模式交通网络的潜在运输能力,合理配置交通应急处置资源等提供科学依据。
To scientifically evaluate the resilience of the external transportation network of the integrated hub cluster,a travel resilience measurement indicator was proposed,covering three dimensions:robustness,redundancy and resilience.The multimodal traffic network passenger flow assignment method was employed to characterize the influence results of different node attack and recovery strategies.The travel resilience measurement method was constructed.Taking the integrated transit hub cluster in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as an example,an example verification was carried out.Research results show that,the external comprehensive transportation network has been basically formed between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and the core cities of typical urban agglomerations such as Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Chengdu.The overall anti-interference and recovery capabilities are strong.The unit travel resilience is generally higher than 0.95 under different disturbance scenarios.Taking a single-node recovery time of 1 h in October 7th(National Day)as an example,the network recovery effect of the node strength recovery strategy is the best,with the network resilience of 0.9902 and only 1402 people affected,which is significantly superior to other strategies.In the morning peak period,due to the large network load and low redundancy of shifts,the resilience decreases to 0.9761,lower than that in the afternoon and evening peaks.In most cases,the network resilience reduces with the longer single-node recovery time,while the number of affected people also increases.For different dates,resilience is affected by both the dispersion of passenger flow distribution and network redundancy.According to the TOPSIS method,the highest resilience is 0.9832 on National Day,while the lowest resilience is 0.9746 at weekends.The proposed resilience evaluation method can provide a scientific basis for analyzing the potential traffic capacity of multimodal traffic networks such as inter-hub railways,civil aviation and urban transport,and rationally allocating transportation emergency response resources.
作者
杨扬
陈君婷
姚恩建
刘冬梅
YANG Yang;CHEN Jun-ting;YAO En-jian*;LIU Dong-mei(Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;RIOH High Science and Technology Group,Beijing 100088,China)
出处
《交通运输工程学报》
北大核心
2026年第2期155-169,共15页
Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2024JBZY009)
国家自然科学基金项目(52432011)。
关键词
交通网络
综合客运枢纽集群
韧性评估
客流需求
多模式交通流分配
京津冀城市群
transportation network
integrated transit hub cluster
resilience evaluation
passenger flow demand
multimodal traffic flow allocation
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
