摘要
目的分析1990―2021年归因于各类危险因素的中国2型糖尿病(type 2 diabetes mellitus,T2DM)疾病负担变化情况并预测未来趋势,以期为制定精准防控策略提供依据。方法收集2021年全球疾病负担研究相关数据,以伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)作为评价指标,分析1990―2021年中国归因于17类危险因素的T2DM疾病负担和变化趋势,并比较不同年龄段人群的主要危险因素。采用Joinpoint回归计算长期变化趋势及变化率,构建自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型预测2022―2030年T2DM疾病负担。结果1990―2021年,归因于危险因素的T2DM疾病负担均呈上升趋势,全人群粗DALYs率平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)为4.152%(95%CI:4.037%~4.267%,P<0.001),标化DALYs率AAPC为0.747%(95%CI:0.657%~0.837%,P<0.001);男性T2DM疾病负担高于女性,且差距逐渐增大;75~<80岁人群疾病负担达到峰值。高血糖、高体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)、室外颗粒物污染、红肉摄入过多是导致T2DM相关DALYs的重要因素。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,到2030年导致中国T2DM疾病负担最重的危险因素仍是高血糖,标化DALYs率将达到604.86/10万(95%CI:540.73/10万~669.00/10万)。结论中国归因于各类危险因素的T2DM疾病负担仍较重,需重点关注男性和高龄人群,针对高血糖和高BMI等关键危险因素采取针对性干预措施。
Objective To analyze the changes in the disease burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)attributable to various risk factors in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends,so as to provide a basis for formulating precise prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,this study used disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate as the metric to analyzethe disease burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)attributable to 17 risk factors in China from 1990 to 2021 and compared the major risk factors across different age groups.Joinpoint regression was employed to calculate long-term trends and annual percentage changes,and the ARIMA model was used to predict the T2DM disease burden from 2022 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2021,the T2DM disease burden attributable to risk factors in China shows an upward trend.The average annual percentage change(AAPC)of the crude DALYs rate in the general population was 4.152%(95%CI:4.037%-4.267%,P<0.001),and the AAPC of the age-standardized DALYs rate was 0.747%(95%CI:0.657%-0.837%,P<0.001).The disease burden in males was higher than that in females,with the gap gradually widening,and the disease burden peaked in the 70-<80 years age group.High fasting plasma glucose,High body-mass index,Particulate matter pollution,and Diet high in red meat were identified as significant contributors to the disease burden associated with T2DM.The ARIMA model projections indicated that high fasting plasma glucose will remain the leading risk factor contributing to the T2DM disease burden in China by 2030,with an estimated age-standardized DALY rate of 604.86 per 100000(95%CI:540.73 per 100000669.00per 100000).Conclusions T2DM disease burden attributable to various risk factors remains substantial in China.Priority attention should be given to males and the elderly population,and targeted intervention measures should be implemented for key risk factors such as high fasting plasma glucose and high BMI.
作者
肖洋
王雪婷
姚卫光
XIAO Yang;WANG Xueting;YAO Weiguang(School of Health Management,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510515,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
北大核心
2026年第3期278-284,323,共8页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
广东省高校哲学社会科学重点实验室项目(公共卫生政策与评价重点实验室)(2015WSYS0010)
广州公共卫生服务体系建设研究基地资助项目(2024-2026)。
关键词
2型糖尿病
伤残寿命调整年
疾病负担
危险因素
预测分析
Type 2 diabetes mellitus
Disability adjusted life years
Disease burden
Risk factors
Prediction
