摘要
目的分析2016—2024年元江县肺结核流行特征及其时空变化趋势,为结核病科学防控提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的传染病监测模块获取2016—2024年元江县肺结核患者病案管理信息,利用Excel 2016和SPSS 22.0软件进行数据的整理与分析。计数资料组间比较采用χ^(2)或χ^(2)_(趋势)检验,以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。应用Joinpoint回归模型分析肺结核发病趋势,采用回顾性时空重排扫描分析肺结核时空聚集特征。结果2016—2024年元江县累计报告肺结核1018例,年均发病率53.62/10万;死亡8例,年均死亡率0.42/10万;病原学阳性率呈逐年增加趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=112.514,P<0.001)。肺结核报告发病率整体呈上升趋势,平均年度变化百分比为4.79%(P<0.001)。发病高峰为6至7月(209例,20.53%)。男性报告发病率(69.67/10万)高于女性(36.59/10万)。男性病例集中于50~<60岁组(155例,119.99/10万),女性病例以10~<20岁(66例,57.07/10万)和70~<80岁(34例,65.71/10万)为主。职业以农民为主(788例,77.41%),农民、干部职员、工人报告发病数在2022年后呈现上升趋势。报告发病率居前3位是红河街道(81.18/10万)、因远镇(65.68/10万)、澧江街道(61.84/10万)。2016—2024年元江县肺结核疫情存在2级聚集区域,涉及3个乡镇(街道),一级聚集区域位于2022—2024年的澧江街道和红河街道,二级聚集区域位于2018年的因远镇,对数似然比分别为11.80、14.98(P均<0.001)。结论2016—2024年元江县肺结核报告发病率整体呈上升趋势,具有一定的时空聚集性,应加强对重点地区及人群肺结核的主动筛查与预防性治疗干预。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal changing trends of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yuanjiang County from 2016 to 2024,and to provide evidence for scientific prevention and control of tuberculosis.Methods The medical record management information of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Yuanjiang County from 2016 to 2024 was obtained through the monitoring of infectious diseases in the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System.Excel 2016 and SPSS 22.0 softwares were used for data collation and analysis.Theχ^(2)orχ^(2)_(trend)test were used for the comparison between groups of count data,and P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis,and the retrospective spatio-temporal rearrangement scan was used to analyze the spatio-temporal aggregation characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis.Results A total of 1018 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Yuanjiang County from 2016 to 2024,with an average annual incidence rate of 53.62/105.There were 8 deaths,with an average annual mortality rate of 0.42/10.The positive rate of etiology showed an increasing trend year by year(χ^(2)_(trend)=112.514,P<0.001).The reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis showed an overall upward trend,with an average annual change percentage of 4.79%(P<0.0o1).The peak incidence period was from June to July(209 cases,20.53%).The reported incidence rate of males(69.67/10)was higher than that of females(36.59/105).Male cases were concentrated in the 50-<60 years old age group(155cases,119.99/105),and female cases were mainly concentrated in the 10-<20 years old age group(66cases,57.07/105)and 70-<80 years old age group(34 cases,65.71/105).Farmers constituted the main occupational group(788 cases,77.41%).The number of reported cases of farmers,cadres and staff,and workers showed an upward trend after 2022.The top three reported incidence rates were found in Honghe Street(81.18/105),Yinyuan Town(65.68/105),and Lijiang Street(61.84/105).From 2016 to 2024,there were two levels of aggregation areas of tuberculosis epidemic in Yuanjiang County,involving three towns/streets.The first-level aggregation area was located in Lijiang Street and Honghe Street from 2022 to 2024,and the second-level aggregation area was located in Yinyuan Town in 2018.The log-likelihood ratios were 11.80 and 14.98,respectively(both P<0.001).Conclusions From 2016 to 2024,the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yuanjiang County showed an overall upward trend,with a certain degree of spatio-temporal aggregation.Active screening and preventive intervention for pulmonary tuberculosis in key areas and populations should be strengthened.
作者
柏增云
王志刚
杨春霞
诺志卫
BAI Zengyun;WANG Zhigang;YANG Chunxia;NUO Zhiwei(Yuanjiang Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Yuanjiang 653300,Yunnan Province,China)
出处
《寄生虫病与感染性疾病》
2026年第1期10-16,23,共8页
Parasitoses and Infectious Diseases
关键词
肺结核
发病率
流行特征
时空聚集
pulmonary tuberculosis
incidence rate
epidemiological characteristics
spatio-temporal aggregation
