摘要
This study investigates the potential formation of subglacial lakes beneath the glaciers of the Franz Josef Land archipelago,Russian Arctic,under current and future climatic conditions.Using a one-dimensional heat and mass transfer model,the research evaluates the influence of geothermal heat flow,ice thickness,and surface temperature on basal melting.The model incorporates enthalpy formulation and boundary conditions derived from field data,including temperature profiles and geothermal measurements.Results indicate that subglacial lakes could form under ice masses exceeding 300 m thickness,driven by geothermal heating,though current basal temperatures remain below the melting point.Simulations under the IPCC SSP1-2.6 scenario suggest a gradual warming trend,highlighting the long-term thermal inertia of Arctic glaciers.The study underscores the need for enhanced observational data to validate models and improve predictions of glacial dynamics in response to climate change.
基金
supported by the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan(Grant no.23230712200).
