摘要
作为国家大数据综合试验区与山地旅游核心省份,贵州依托“黄小西”核心景区与“村超”“村BA”等现象级IP实现旅游产业快速增长。同时,其旅游需求预测体系难以适配市场非线性波动与突发流量冲击,制约着“流量”向“留量”的有效转化。本文基于大数据价值链理论,解构贵州旅游需求预测在数据源、技术应用、制度保障三方面的结构性困境,结合数据“生成—聚合—分析—应用”价值传导逻辑,构建“数据融合层—智能技术层—场景应用层”三维协同的预测体系。研究提出:以“票根经济”为抓手重塑数据治理,推动全省统一数据底座建设;以“黄小西”旅游智能体为牵引,促进技术与人才协同跃升;以赛事经济、旅居产业等多元消费场景为牵引,完善制度化保障。研究旨在为贵州建设世界级山地旅游目的地、实现文旅体深度融合发展提供数据驱动的决策支撑。
As a national pilot zone for big data and a core province for mountain tourism,Guizhou has achieved rapid growth in its tourism industry by leveraging core scenic areas such as“Huang,Xiao,Xi”(Huangguoshu Waterfall,Xiaoqikong,and Xijiang Qianhu Miao Village)as well as phenomenon-level IPs like“Cun Chao”(Village Super League)and“Cun BA”(Village Basketball Association).However,its tourism demand forecasting system struggles to adapt to non-linear market fluctuations and suddentraffic surges,constraining the effective conversion of“traffic”into“sustained visitor engagement.”Based on big data value chain theory,this paper deconstructs the structural dilemmas faced by Guizhou’s tourism demand forecasting in three dimensions:data sources,technology application,and institutional support.Integrating the value transmission logic of“data generation-aggregation-analysis-application,”it constructs a threedimensionally coordinated forecasting system comprising a“data fusion layer,intelligent technology layer,and scenario application layer.”The study proposes:reshaping data governance through“ticket economy”initiatives to promote the construction of a unified provincial data infrastructure;leveraging the“Huang-Xiao-Xi”tourism intelligent agent to drive synergistic advancement of technology and talent;and improving institutional safeguards by drawing on diverse consumption scenarios such as event economy and residential tourism.This aims to provide data-driven decision support for Guizhou’s development into a world-class mountain tourism destination and the deep integration of cultural,tourism,and sports industries.
作者
蒋光辉
高江玲
Jiang Guanghui;Gao Jiangling(Qiandongnan Nationalities Polytechnic,Kaili,Guizhou 556000)
出处
《中国商论》
2026年第6期75-79,共5页
China Journal of Commerce
基金
贵州省高校人文社会科学研究项目“数据驱动下的贵州旅游需求预测研究”(2025R W030)资助。
关键词
贵州旅游
需求预测
数据驱动
文旅融合
Guizhou tourism
demand forecasting
data-driven approach
integration of culture and tourism
