摘要
去冬今春整体偏暖,冷空气过程少,不利于荔枝成花。今年荔枝成花率普遍低于去年,呈现“中等偏下”产量年景。全国荔枝种植面积约751.72万亩,基于成花情况预测2026年全国荔枝总产量约231.16万t,比创高产纪录的2025年(365.04万t)减产36.68%,但比“小年”的2024年(172.79万t)增产33.78%。早熟品种‘妃子笑’‘白糖罂’成花率普遍在70%~90%,中晚熟品种‘桂味’‘糯米糍’等成花率仅10%~30%,新品种如‘仙进奉’成花率40%~70%。预计上市高峰集中在5—6月。针对当前花果期管理,建议加强肥水调控、保花保果及病虫害防控,力争稳产提质。
Overall warmer temperatures and fewer cold air outbreaks during the past winter and early spring were unfavorable for litchi flowering.Consequently,the flowering rate this year is generally lower than last year,indicating a"below-average"production year.The national litchi cultivation area is approximately 7.5172 million mu.Based on flowering conditions,the total litchi production in 2026 is predicted to be approximately 2.3116 million tons.This represents a year-on-year decrease of 36.68%compared to the record-breaking 2025(3.6504 million tons),but a year-on-year increase of 33.78%compared to the low-yield year of 2024(1.7279 million tons).The flowering rates for early-maturing varieties such as'Feizixiao'and'Baitangying'were generally between 70%and 90%,whereas mid-to-late-maturing varieties like'Guiwei'and'Nuomici'showed the flowering rates as only 10%to 30%.New cultivars such as'Xianjinfeng'exhibited flowering rates of 40%to 70%.The peak season for litchi was expected to be in May and June.Regarding current flower and fruit management,it was recommended to strengthen fertilizer and water regulation,flower and fruit preservation,and pest control in an effort to stabilize yield and improve quality.
作者
胡桂兵
苏钻贤
齐文娥
HU Guibing;SU Zuanxian;QI Wen'e(National Litchi and Longan Industry Technology Research and Development Center/South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,Guangdong)
出处
《中国热带农业》
2026年第2期5-15,54,共12页
China Tropical Agriculture
基金
财政部农业农村部国家现代农业技术体系建设项目基金(CARS-32)。
关键词
荔枝
产量与产期预测
产销管理
litchi
yield and harvest time prediction
production and marketing management
