摘要
为了实现高时空分辨率、高精度海浪要素的预报预警与快速响应,聚焦上海国际航运中心建设需求,基于数值模型和人工智能方法,构建精细化、业务化、自动化海浪数智预警报系统,形成“数据感知—数值模拟—智能订正—展示应用”技术体系。经验证,各站点后报RMSE均小于0.25 m,MAE小于0.2 m;预报性能随预报时效增加虽有小幅衰减,但在72 h内仍保持较高的相关性与稳定性。在“竹节草”台风影响期间,最大有效波高在后报和24 h预报MARE均不超过10%,72 h预报RMSE相对24 h平均增幅0.11 m。实践表明,该系统在上海海域表现出优异的模拟能力,其在重点区域分辨率达100 m,并控制预警响应时间在3 h以内,已成功应用于航运服务、重大工程保障、海洋防灾减灾等核心场景,为国际航运中心构建更安全、高效、智能的海浪预警报系统提供了实践参考。
To develop a refined,operational,and automated ocean wave numerical-AI early warning and forecasting system,and to meet the needs of Shanghai International Shipping Center,based on the numerical model and AI method,it establishes a technical suite of“data perception—numerical modeling—AI correction—display&application”,which achieves early-warning,forecasting and rapid response of wave with high spatiotemporal resolution and high accuracy.Verification results show that the hindcast RMSE at all stations is less than 0.25 m,and the MAE is below 0.2 m;although the forecast performance degrades slightly with increasing time horizon,it maintains high correlation and stability within 72 h.During“CO-MAY”,the MARE of the maximum significant wave height was bellow 10%in both hindcast and 24 h forecast,while the RMSE of the 72 h forecast increased by an average of 0.11 m compared to 24 h results.Practice has shown that the system demonstrates excellent prediction capability in Shanghai coastal waters,with a resolution reaching 100 m in key areas and the early warning response time is kept within 3 h,which has been applied in core scenarios such as shipping services,major project support,marine disaster prevention and mitigation,providing a practical reference for building a safer,more efficient,and intelligent ocean wave early warning and forecasting system for the international shipping center.
作者
孟鑫
MENG Xin(Shanghai Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center,Shanghai 200062,China)
出处
《江苏海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》
2026年第1期37-45,共9页
Journal of Jiangsu Ocean University:Natural Science Edition
基金
上海市地方标准制修订项目(沪市监标技[2020]560号)
上海市海洋灾害综合防治体系建设工程项目(沪发改环资[2024]23号)
上海市第一次海洋灾害风险普查项目(沪水务[2020]1072号)
上海市海洋局科研项目(沪海科2023-06)。
关键词
海浪预报
近岸海浪模式
人工智能
上海国际航运中心
wave forecast
SWAN
artificial intelligence
Shanghai International Shipping Center
