摘要
在全球气候变化加剧与人工渠系快速扩张的背景下,分汊河网的精细化水文模拟需求日益迫切。然而,传统水文模型多基于树状河网结构,难以有效模拟人工河道及分汊河网等复杂条件下的洪水演进过程。作者团队自主研发的水文水动力集合预报系统(SkyShare,System for Hydrodynamic Assembling and Realtime Evaluation)集成了多个产汇流模块,其中汇流模块基于“节点—河段—流域”拓扑框架,能够刻画天然河道与人工渠系的洪水演进过程。本文针对分汊河网特征完成该模块的开发,并以湄公河三角洲为例进行验证,模拟洞里萨湖往复流影响下三角洲地区主要干流站点的水文变化过程。结果显示,在多年平均径流条件下,洞里萨湖倒灌时期巴萨河的分流比重约为36%,湄公河干流占比为64%。Vam Nao及其上游4处水文站的验证期纳什效率系数(NSE)均高于0.80,相对偏差控制在±15%以内;受潮汐影响的My Thuan站点虽在枯季流量波动模拟方面略有不足,但在洪峰时序和量级上具有一定参考价值。综上,SkyShare中的分汊河网汇流模块可有效模拟分汊河网复杂水文过程,为复杂河网区洪水预警、水资源调度与适应性管理提供技术支撑。
Amid intensifying global climate change and the rapid expansion of artificial canal systems,there is a growing demand for refined hydrological modeling in bifurcating river networks.However,traditional hydrological models are typically based on dendritic(tree-like)river structures and are often inadequate for simulating flood routing under complex conditions involving artificial channels and bifurcating networks.The authors have independently developed the SkyShare system(System for Hydrodynamic Assembling and Realtime Evaluation),a hydrological–hydrodynamic ensemble forecasting platform that integrates multiple modules for runoff generation and confluence processes.Its confluence module,built on a“node–river reach–sub-basin”topological framework,enables the representation of flood routing in both natural rivers and artificial channels.In this study,the confluence module was enhanced to address bifurcating river networks and was validated in the Mekong River Delta.The model simulated hydrological variations at key mainstream stations under the influence of bidirectional flow from the Tonle Sap Lake.Results show that,under long-term average runoff conditions during the backflow period of the Tonle Sap,approximately 36%of the discharge was diverted to the Bassac River,while 64%remained in the Mekong mainstream.During the validation period at Vam Nao and four upstream hydrological stations,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)exceeded 0.80,with relative bias within±15%.Although the tide-affected My Thuan station shows limited accuracy in simulating dry-season low-flow variability,the model still provides some reference value for the timing and magnitude of flood peaks.In conclusion,the bifurcating river network confluence module within the SkyShare system can effectively simulate complex hydrological processes in bifurcating networks,providing robust technical support for flood forecasting,water resource regulation,and adaptive management in complex river network regions.
作者
董志强
胡宏昌
刘慧
白音包力皋
穆祥鹏
曹翔
李晓晨
刘亚平
DONG Zhiqiang;HU Hongchang;LIU Hui;Baiyinbaoligao;MU Xiangpeng;CAO Xiang;LI Xiaochen;LIU Yaping(State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China)
出处
《中国水利水电科学研究院学报(中英文)》
北大核心
2026年第2期206-215,共10页
Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
基金
中国水科院基本科研业务费专项项目(HY110145B0012025)
水利部长江治理与保护重点实验室开放研究基金项目(CX2023K01)。
