摘要
全球变暖导致极端气候事件频发,中国西南地区作为重要的生态屏障和经济区,近年来干旱事件频发,对水资源安全、农业生产和生态环境构成了严重威胁。因此,系统探究西南地区干旱事件的时空演变规律及未来趋势,对于深刻理解区域干旱发展动态、建立有效防灾减灾策略具有至关重要的理论与现实意义。本研究利用GRACE/GRACE-FO数据探究西南地区2002—2022年间陆地水储量和地下水储量的时空演化特征,并基于干旱指数(Drought Severity Index,DSI)诊断西南地区干旱特征及未来发展趋势。结果表明:①基于GRACE数据重构的水储量和干旱指数结果可靠,可为干旱定量评价提供科学依据;②西南地区陆地水储量与地下水储量均存在明显的季节波动并持续增长,以贵州、重庆最为显著;③20年间共发生15次干旱事件,以春冬季频率最高,最烈干旱为2010年的冬春连旱;④云南西南部、四川西部以及广西南部的干旱在过去20年间明显加剧,四川东部、重庆、贵州以及广西北部等区域在未来将面对更严峻的干旱。研究表明,尽管西南地区水储量总体增加,但干旱频发且空间分布不均,未来需加强对高风险区域的水资源监测与干旱防控,为区域防灾减灾提供科学依据。
Global warming has led to frequent extreme weather events.As a vital ecological barrier and economic zone,Southwest China has experienced recurring droughts in recent years,posing severe threats to water security,agricultural production,and the ecological environment.Therefore,systematically investigating the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and future trends of drought events in Southwest China holds crucial theoretical and practical significance for deeply understanding regional drought dynamics and establishing effective disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.This study utilizes GRACE data to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land water storage and groundwater storage in Southwest China between 2002 and 2022.It diagnoses the drought characteristics and future development trends in Southwest China based on the GWSA Drought Severity Index(DSI).The results show that:(1)the reconstructed quantitative results of water storage and drought severity index are reliable,which can provide a scientific basis for drought evaluation;(2)both land water storage and groundwater storage have obvious seasonal fluctuations and continue to increase,with Guizhou and Chongqing being the most significant ones;(3)a total of 15 droughts have occurred during the 20-year period,with the highest frequency in spring and winter,and the most severe drought is the winter-spring drought in 2010;(4)The droughts in southwest Yunnan,west Sichuan,and south Guangxi have increased significantly during the past 20 years,and the regions of east Sichuan,Chongqing,Guizhou,and north Guangxi will face more severe droughts in the future.The study indicates that despite the overall increase in water storage in the Southwest,frequent and spatially unevenly distributed droughts necessitate enhanced water resource monitoring and drought prevention and control in high-risk areas to provide scientific support for regional disaster prevention and mitigation.
作者
杨宇璐
魏稳
Yang Yulu;Wei Wen(School of Ocean Engineering and Technology,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China)
出处
《遥感技术与应用》
北大核心
2026年第1期242-253,共12页
Remote Sensing Technology and Application
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42276173)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2023A1515030088,2024A1515010096)
关键词
GRACE数据
西南地区
水储量
干旱事件
时空特征
GRACE data
Southwest China
Water storage
Drought events
Spatial and temporal characteristics
