摘要
相邻水库间的预报不确定性在空间维度上具有一定关联性,忽视这种不确定性可能导致库群防洪风险计算出现偏差,进而无法挖掘库群联合调度最大潜力。针对上述问题,该文采用t-Copula函数量化水库群间预报不确定性的相关性,并分析这种相关性对水库群防洪风险的影响。结果表明:考虑相邻流域间具有水力联系的水库预报不确定性相关性后,水库群预报不确定性有所降低,忽略这种不确定性会导致高估防洪风险,可能会导致决策者指定偏保守的决策。
The forecast uncertainty between adjacent reservoirs has a certain correlation in the spatial dimension.Ignoring this uncertainty may lead to deviations in the flood risk calculation of reservoir groups,thereby failing to tap the maximum potential of joint scheduling of reservoir groups.To address the above issues,this paper uses t-Copula functions to quantify the correlation between forecast uncertainties among reservoir groups and analyzes the impact of this correlation on flood risks for reservoir groups.The results show that considering the correlation between forecast uncertainties of reservoirs with hydraulic connections between adjacent basins reduces the forecast uncertainty of reservoir groups.Ignoring this uncertainty can lead to an overestimation of flood risks,which may cause decision-makers to make overly conservative decisions.
作者
李照会
张毅
LI Zhaohui;ZHANG Yi(Shandong Yellow River Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250013,China)
出处
《广东水利水电》
2026年第3期47-52,共6页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
关键词
COPULA函数
预报不确定性
时空关联
水库调度
防洪风险
copula function
forecast uncertainty
temporal and spatial correlation
reservoir operation
flood risk
