摘要
目的 探究北京市通州区永顺社区老年高血压合并肥胖患者慢性肾脏病(CKD)的患病情况及危险因素分析,同时建立预测模型。方法 回顾性纳入北京市通州区永顺社区2024年1月1日至12月31日体检且年龄≥65岁的高血压合并肥胖的居民为研究对象,共纳入610例患者,按照7∶3比例随机划分为训练集(n=427)和验证集(n=183),在训练集里分析老年高血压合并肥胖患者的CKD患病相关危险因素。根据是否发生CKD分为CKD组(n=204)与非CKD组(n=223)。采用多因素Logistic回归模型分析CKD的相关影响因素,进一步采用R软件建立北京市通州区永顺社区周边年龄≥65岁的高血压合并肥胖的常住居民患CKD的风险预测模型。结果 CKD组在年龄、身体质量指数(BMI)、血尿酸、总胆固醇、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、同型半胱氨酸水平上均显著高于非CKD组,且女性、糖尿病及肾超声异常的比例也均高于非CKD组,差异均无统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,年龄、BMI、糖尿病、高脂血症、肾超声异常等均为CKD的危险因素(P<0.05)。根据Logistic回归分析结果建立通州区永顺社区常住居民的CKD预测模型,验证集验证预测模型区分度良好。结论 老年高血压肥胖患者中CKD的患病率高,应针对危险因素采取有效措施,降低患病率。
Objective To explore the prevalence and risk factors of chronic kidney disease(CKD)in elderly hypertensive patients with obesity in Yongshun community,Tongzhou District,Beijing,and establish a prediction model.Methods A total of 610 patients with hypertension and obesity aged≥65 years old who underwent physical examination in Yongshun community,Tongzhou District,Beijing from January 1 to December 31,2024 were retrospectively included in the study.Patients were randomly divided into training set and validation set according to the ratio of 7∶3.The related risk factors of CKD in elderly patients with hypertension and obesity were analyzed in the training set.According to the occurrence of CKD,they were divided into the CKD group(n=204)and the non-CKD group(n=223).Multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the related influencing factors of CKD,and R software was further used to establish the risk prediction model of CKD among residents with hypertension and obesity aged≥65 years around Yongshun community,Tongzhou District,Beijing.Results The age,body mass index(BMI),serum uric acid,total cholesterol,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)and homocysteine levels in the CKD group were significantly higher than those in the non-CKD group,and the proportions of female,diabetes and renal ultrasound abnormalities were also higher than those in the non-CKD group,the differences were not statistically significant(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age body mass index,diabetes mellitus,hyperlipidemia and abnormal renal ultrasound were the risk factors of chronic kidney disease(P<0.05).According to the results of Logistic regression aalysis,the CKD prediction model of permanent residents of Yongshun community in Tongzhou District was established,and the discrimination of the prediction model was good in the validation set.Conclusion The prevalence of CKD in elderly hypertensive obese patients is high.Effective measures should be taken to reduce the prevalence according to the risk factors.
作者
王丽粉
李茹
黄红东
刘莎
WANG Lifen;LI Ru;HUANG Hongdong(Department of Nephrology,Beijing Friendship Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100050;Department of Nephrology,Aviation General Hospital,Beijing 100008,China,China;Beijing Tongzhou District Yongshun Community Health Service Center,Beijing 101125,China)
出处
《临床和实验医学杂志》
2026年第3期254-258,共5页
Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine
基金
北京市通州区科技计划项目(编号:KJ2024CX054)。
关键词
老年人
高血压
肥胖症
慢性肾脏病
影响因素
预测模型
Aged
Hypertension
Obesity
Chronic kidney disease
Influence factor
Prediction model
