摘要
“营改增”试点被赋予调整企业税负结构、推动服务业发展、促进产业结构转型的重要使命,但在全面推开“营改增”及增值税分成比例调整后,第三产业增速却明显下降,第二产业增速则稳中有升。为解释这一现象,本文基于地方政府策略性行为视角,构造“制造业公司—城市—年份”结构的面板数据并进行实证分析。研究结果表明,增值税分成比例调整强化了地方政府对制造业的引资激励,且受到财政负向冲击的城市引资动力更强,显著吸引了更多的制造业投资。机制检验表明,改善企业融资环境和提高企业盈利水平是本轮地方政府引资的重要渠道。本文认为应坚持系统观念,统筹顶层设计与基层实践,优化央地财政关系并畅通金融支持实体经济渠道。
The pilot program of the Business Tax to VAT(BT-to-VAT)reform was entrusted with the important missions of adjusting corporate tax burden structures,boosting the development of the service sector,and promoting industrial structural transformation.However,following the nationwide implementation of the BT-to-VAT reform and the adjustment of the VAT revenue-sharing ratio,the growth rate of the tertiary industry declined notably,while that of the secondary industry remained stable with a slight increase.To explain this phenomenon,this paper constructs the panel data of"manufacturing firm-city-year"structure and conducts empirical analysis based on the perspective of strategic behavior of local government.The research findings indicate that the adjustment of the VAT revenue-sharing ratio has strengthened local governments'incentives to attract investment in the manufacturing sector.Moreover,cities subject to negative fiscal shocks exhibit stronger investment-attraction motives and thus attract significantly more manufacturing investment.Mechanism tests reveal that improving the corporate financing environment and enhancing corporate profitability are important channels through which local governments attract investment in this round.The paper proposes adhering to a systematic approach,coordinating top-level design with grassroots practice,optimizing central-local fiscal relations,and smoothing financial support channels for the real economy.
作者
杨耀武
彭湃
Yang Yaowu;Peng Pai
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2026年第3期40-50,共11页
Enterprise Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“发展新质生产力与完善现代化产业体系研究”(项目编号:24&ZD039)。
关键词
税制变迁
财政压力
制造业引资
非预期后果
tax system reform
fiscal pressure
manufacturing investment attraction
unintended consequences
