摘要
百年未有之大变局下,中国经济发展面临的外部不确定性上升,尤其在国际贸易领域,针对中国的反倾销制裁日益增多。本文使用2003—2019年的数据,通过将中国遭受反倾销立案调查的行业与A股上市企业进行匹配,探究反倾销冲击对上市企业贸易信贷的影响。结果表明,反倾销冲击显著降低了上市企业的贸易信贷负债水平,而对贸易信贷资产未产生显著影响。产业链上下游企业与受调查企业之间贸易信贷水平下降,表明反倾销冲击会通过贸易信贷这一境内微观机制扩散传递至上下游企业。机制检验发现,反倾销冲击通过恶化企业经营绩效,提高融资成本,进而显著降低其贸易信贷负债水平。同时,高效强韧的供应链网络能够缓解反倾销冲击对企业贸易信贷负债的负面影响。进一步分析发现,在银行信贷依赖度较低、信息披露质量较差、创新能力较弱、国有控股以及行业竞争力较弱的企业中,反倾销冲击降低贸易信贷负债水平的作用更加显著;同时,这一作用在金融发展和社会信任水平较低的地区更为显著。本文研究结论为缓解反倾销冲击的扩散传递,保持供应链韧性提供参考。
The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,with the field of international trade being particularly affected.Global trade frictions have continued to escalate.As a key node in global value chains and an important participant in the world economic system,China has become one of the economies most frequently subjected to anti-dumping sanctions.The persistent imposition of such sanctions has deteriorated the external business environment of firms.These shocks not only exert substantial influences on enterprises directly involved in investigations but also generate spillover effects within the domestic economy.Trade credit,as an important financing instrument based on inter-firm commercial credit,may experience structural adjustments in its scale or maturity.Such adjustments can alter firms'production and operational behaviors,thereby forming a transmission channel through which external shocks propagate along supply chain networks.Against this backdrop,this study employs data from 2003 to 2019 and matches industries subject to anti-dumping investigations against China to A-share listed firms to examine the impact of anti-dumping shocks on corporate trade credit.The empirical results indicate that anti-dumping shocks significantly reduce listed firms'trade credit liabilities,while exerting no significant effect on their trade credit assets.This suggests that anti-dumping shocks primarily influence firms'financing structures through a reduction in trade credit liabilities.The negative effect remains robust across a series of sensitivity analyses.Mechanism analyses reveal that anti-dumping shocks suppress trade credit liabilities by weakening firms'operational performance and increasing financing costs.Moreover,a highly efficient and resilient supply chain network can mitigate the adverse impact of anti-dumping shocks on trade credit liabilities.This finding also indirectly reveals that anti-dumping shocks propagate within the industrialchain through the trade-credit channel,transmitting from the targeted industries to othersectors and ultimately giving rise to a systemic diffusion of credit risk.Further analyses show that the negative effect is more pronounced among firms with limited access to bank credit,lower-quality information disclosure,insufficient innovation capacity,state ownership,and weaker industry competitiveness.Additionally,this suppressing effect is particularly significant in regions characterized by lower levels of financial development and social trust.Based on these findings,this paper offers several policy recommendations to alleviate the impact of anti-dumping shocks on affected firms and their domestic spillovers.Firstly,China should actively exercise anti-discrimination investigation rights to safeguard the legitimate interests of domestic enterprises.Secondly,an emergency response mechanism should be established within the accounts receivable registration system to enhance its function as a“credit stabilizer”during crises.Thirdly,targeted support mechanisms should be developed for firms directly affected by shocks.Fourthly,corporate financing channels should be further diversified.Fifthly,the overall resilience of supply chain systems should be strengthened.Sixthly,technological innovation should be reinforced to promote collaborative innovation between the government and enterprises.
作者
周先平
孙沛香
皮永娟
Zhou Xianping;Sun Peixiang;Pi Yongjuan(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;Hubei Financial Research Center;Collaborative Innovation Center of Industrial Upgrading and Regional Finance(Hubei))
出处
《国际金融研究》
北大核心
2026年第1期47-61,共15页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“全球价值链动态优化与金融稳定研究”(20AJY025)
中南财经政法大学研究生科研创新平台项目“人民币国际化背景下东亚货币金融合作的模式和路径选择”(202410576)资助。
关键词
反倾销立案调查
贸易信贷
供应链
经营绩效
Anti-Dumping Investigations
Trade Credit
Supply Chain
Firm Performance
