摘要
中国A股制造业、批发及零售业的703家上市公司2006年—2022年的财务报表数据显示上市公司的资产收益率均值为3%,仅略高于同期银行无风险利率(2%).本文利用上市公司财务年报,从供应链管理的视角,基于库存管理理论和资源依赖理论,分析了客户集中度和牛鞭效应对公司资产收益率的影响.发现客户集中度与资产收益率呈正相关性,牛鞭效应与资产收益率呈负相关性,及客户集中度和牛鞭效应对资产收益率的影响均通过影响库存周转率而产生.对公司决策者而言,应适当地提升客户集中度,或缓解牛鞭效应,从而加快库存周转率,提升资产收益率.对公司投资者而言,通过关注公司客户集中度、牛鞭效应和库存周转率的变化,可预判公司资产收益率的走势,改善投资决策.
The financial statement data of 703 listed companies in China's A-share manufacturing,wholesale and retail industries for the year 2006-2022 show that the average value of return on assets of listed companies is 3%,which is slightly higher than the bank risk-free rate(2%)for the same period.Using data from the balance sheets and income statements of listed companies,as well as the notes to the annual financial reports,this paper analyzes the impact of customer concentration and the bullwhip effect on a company's return on assets from the perspective of operations management,based on theories of inventory management and resource dependence.It is found that customer concentration is positively correlated with return on assets and bullwhip effect is negatively correlated with return on assets.Moreover,the effect of customer concentration on return on assets operates through its impact on inventory turnover and the effect of bullwhip effect on return on assets also operates through inventory turnover.The managerial insights for firms'decision makers are that they should appropriately increase customer concentration or invest resources to mitigate the bullwhip effect to accelerate inventory turnover and improve return on assets.For companies'investors,by following companies'news to detect changes in customer concentration,the bullwhip effect,and inventory turnover,they can predict the trend of the companies'return on assets and improve their investment decisions.
作者
李娟
山峻
LI Juan;SHAN Jun(School of Management and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;School of Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
北大核心
2026年第1期73-90,共18页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171113
72471111)。
关键词
客户集中度
牛鞭效应
库存周转率
资产收益率
customer concentration
bullwhip effect
inventory turnover rate
return on assets
