摘要
“买得到、价合理、运得回”是粮食国际供应链韧性的直接体现。通过“粮源-定价-物流”的整合性分析框架,系统梳理日本强化粮食国际供应链韧性的举措,客观审视其实践效能和深层困境,可以发现:日本的粮食国际供应链面临粮源高度集中、国际市场价格剧烈冲击、国际国内物流体系潜在风险等挑战。为应对这些挑战,日本以国家贸易、长期协定和财政缓冲的组合拳保障粮源的同时实现价格稳定;通过锻造海运和分拨能力,构建立体高效的粮食物流体系。日本的举措取得了一定的实践效能,但也面临历史路径依赖带来较大地缘政治风险、过度依靠外部资源侵蚀国内农业根基、维系粮价产生的粮食安全错觉抑制农政改革等深层困境。为了进一步强化粮食国际供应链韧性,有必要围绕根本原则、系统赋能与理念转型3个层面加以思考。
Ensuring availability,affordability,and deliverability are direct manifestations of the resilience of an international grain supply chain.Based on an integrated analytical framework of"grain sourcing pricing-logistics",this paper systematically examines the measures that Japan has taken to strengthen the resilience of its international grain supply chain,offering an objective assessment of their practical effectiveness and underlying challenges.The study finds that Japan's international grain supply chain faces three-dimensional challenges:high concentration of grain sources,severe impacts from international market price fluctuations,and significant potential risks in both international and domestic logistics systems.In response,Japan employs a combined strategy of state trading,long-term agreements,and fiscal buffers to secure grain supplies while stabilizing prices.It has also developed a multi-layered and efficient grain logistics system by building redundant maritime shipping and domestic distribution capabilities.While these measures have yielded certain practical results,they also confront deep-seated dilemmas,including geopolitical risks arising from historical path dependency,the erosion of the domestic agricultural base due to over-reliance on external resources,and the inhibition of agricultural policy reforms by a false sense of food security fostered by price stabilization mechanisms.Finally,it is necessary to think about three dimensions,including fundamental principles,systemic capacity building,and paradigm shifts,in order to further enhance the resilience of the international grain supply chain.
作者
郝腾
马红坤
HAO Teng;MA Hongkun(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao,Shandong,266061,China;School of International Affairs and Public Administration,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong,266100,China)
出处
《现代日本经济》
北大核心
2026年第1期63-77,共15页
Contemporary Economy of Japan
基金
国家社科规划基金一般项目“二战后日本农村空心化治理政策的演变及其启示研究”(25BSS026)。
关键词
粮食安全
供应链韧性
粮源-定价-物流
海外农业
日本
food security
supply chain resilience
grain sourcing-pricing-logistics
overseas agriculture
Japan
