摘要
近年来,中国大麦进口规模持续增长,对外依存度不断走高。基于2012-2024年中国与大麦进口来源国数据,构建中国大麦进口贸易引力模型,对中国大麦进口影响因素和进口来源国的贸易潜力进行探究。结果表明:经济规模、人口、距离、单产、汇率以及同属于APEC成员6个因素对中国大麦进口贸易具有显著影响;根据贸易潜力系数的测算结果,中国大麦的进口来源市场目前处在贸易潜力开拓阶段,市场未得到充分有效的开发。因此,中国应以要素禀赋互补性为基础,发展大麦进口贸易;在新的区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)背景下,通过多种渠道建立和深化区域合作机制,开拓大麦贸易市场,促进大麦进口来源多元化,降低对主要来源国的大麦进口依赖;推动大麦生产向高质量发展,以应对国际市场的不确定性。
In recent years,China's barley imports have continued to grow,with increasing external dependency.Based on data from 2012 to 2024 between China and its barley-importing partner countries,a gravity model of China's barley import trade was constructed to explore the influencing factors and the trade potential of source countries.The results show that six factors-economic scale,population,distance,yield,exchange rate,and APEC membership-have a significant impact on China's barley import trade.According to the calculation of the trade potential coefficient,China's barley import market is currently in the trade potential exploration stage,with the market not yet fully and effectively developed.Therefore,China should develop barley import trade based on the complementarity of factor endowments.Under the framework of the new Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),China should establish and deepen regional cooperation mechanisms through multiple channels,expand the barley trade market,promote the diversification of barley import sources,and reduce reliance on major supplier countries.Additionally,efforts should be made to advance high-quality development in barley production to address uncertainties in the international market.
作者
包维嘉
程果
梁晓贺
庄家煜
Bao Weijia;Cheng Guo;Liang Xiaohe;Zhuang Jiayu(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of A gricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Institute of Scientific and Technical Information,Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Guiyang 550025,Guizhou;The Dagang Customs Affiliated to the Qingdao Customs District of the People's Republic of China,Qingdao 266011,Shandong;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Blockchain Application,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081)
出处
《农业展望》
2025年第10期99-106,共8页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
中华人民共和国青岛海关委托项目“中国农产品进出口态势和风险信息服务”
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2024-34)。
关键词
大麦
进口
影响因素
贸易引力模型
贸易潜力
barley
import
influencing factors
trade gravity model
trade potential
