摘要
本文探讨金融市场有效性和可预测性的多维度特征,通过分析投资者情绪、宏观经济指标、金融中介行为等市场变量对资产价格的影响,本文试图揭示金融市场在有效市场假说(EMH)框架下的实际运行机制。研究发现,尽管有效市场假说认为市场价格能够迅速反映所有可用信息,但投资者情绪、新闻情绪、交易行为等非理性因素仍然对市场波动和价格走势产生显著影响。本文进一步探讨了动量交易和反转交易等策略在不同市场条件下的有效性,为投资者决策和市场监管提供了理论支持和实践指导。
This paper aims to explore the multi-dimensional characteristics of financial market efficiency and predictability by analyzing the impacts of market variables such as investor sentiment,macroeconomic indicators and financial intermediary behaviors on asset prices,this paper attempts to reveal the actual operation mechanism of financial markets under the framework of the Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH).The study finds that although the Efficient Market Hypothesis holds that market prices can quickly reflect all available information,irrational factors such as investor sentiment,news sentiment and trading behaviors still exert a significant impact on market volatility and price trends.This paper further discusses the effectiveness of strategies such as momentum trading and contrarian trading under different market conditions,providing theoretical support and practical guidance for investor decision-making and market supervision.
作者
谢善勇
XIE Shanyong(Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)
关键词
金融市场有效性
投资者情绪
市场波动
市场预测性
financial market efficiency
investor sentiment
contrarian trading
market predictability
