摘要
文章聚焦欧盟碳边境调节机制与关键原材料法案联动形成的复合绿色贸易壁垒,基于全球价值链重构视角构建“关税+非关税”政策联动模型,并运用全球贸易分析模型模拟评估该壁垒对贸易格局与经济福利的影响。研究发现:复合绿色贸易壁垒对中国出口产生显著非线性抑制效应,其强度与行业碳强度及原材料依赖度呈正相关;全球价值链重构存在行业异质性,高碳强度和高原材料依赖度行业更易突破阈值并陷入锁定,而高替代弹性的技术密集型行业韧性更强;抑制效应随时间呈现初期刚性、中期弹性释放和长期锁定的三阶段特征。研究进一步揭示了复合绿色贸易壁垒导致中欧经济福利双向损失,并驱动区域贸易格局重构。文章据此提出防御性适应、主动性升级与制度性超越三维度协同应对策略体系。
This paper focuses on Composite Green Trade Barriers(CGTB)formed by the interaction of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)and Critical Raw Materials Act(CRMA).From the perspective of global value chain restructuring,the paper constructs a"tariff+non-tariff"policy linkage model and employs the GTAP model to simulate and evaluate the impact of CGTB on trade pattern and economic welfare.The research shows that CGTB exerts a significant nonlinear inhibitory effect on China's exports,and the intensity of this effect is positively correlated with industrial carbon intensity and raw material dependence;the restructuring of global value chain exhibits industry heterogeneity:the industries with high carbon intensity and high raw material dependence are more likely to cross the threshold and fall into lock-in,while technology-intensive industries with high substitution elasticity demonstrate stronger resilience;the inhibitory effect exhibits a three-phase characteristic over time:initial rigidity,mid-term elasticity release and long term lock-in.The research further reveals that CGTB leads to a two-way loss of economic welfare between China and the EU and drives the restructuring of regional trade pattern.Accordingly,this paper proposes a three-dimension coordinated response strategy system consisting of defensive adaptation,proactive upgrading and institutional transcendence.
作者
攸频
王宇东
田菁
YOU Pin;WANG Yudong;TIAN Jing
出处
《国际经贸探索》
北大核心
2026年第2期22-36,共15页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72203055)。
关键词
复合绿色贸易壁垒
碳边境调节机制
关键原材料法案
全球价值链
非线性抑制效应
Composite Green Trade Barriers
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Critical Raw Materials Act
global value chain
nonlinear inhibitory effect
