摘要
为了分析氢燃料电池重卡的经济性及发展潜力,该文系统分析了电解水制氢的成本构成及影响因素。以49 t重卡为研究对象,对比氢燃料电池重卡、纯电重卡及柴油重卡的全生命周期成本(TCO),并预测未来成本下降趋势。结果表明:电网稳定性和电价波动对电解水制氢经济性影响显著。在政策补贴与技术进步驱动下,2024年氢燃料电池重卡成本为2.82元/km,接近柴油重卡的2.30元/km。当氢气价格降至30元/kg时,氢油平衡有望于2030年实现;降至25元/kg时,氢油平衡将于2025年实现。随着氢燃料电池重卡整车成本显著下降,在氢气价格进一步降低的前提下,其有望在未来实现与柴油重卡的成本平价。
The cost components and influencing factors of hydrogen production via water electrolysis was systematically analyzed to evaluate the economic viability and development potential of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks(HFC-HDTs).Focusing on 49-ton heavy-duty trucks,the total cost of ownership(TCO)of HFC-HDTs,battery electric trucks,and diesel trucks was compared,while the predicting future cost reduction trends was predicted.The results indicate that grid stability and electricity price fluctuations significantly affect the economics of electrolytic hydrogen production.Driven by policy subsidies and technological advancements,the cost of HFC-HDTs in 2024 is 2.82 CNY/km,approaching the 2.30 CNY/km of diesel trucks.Furthermore,cost parity between hydrogen and diesel is expected to be achieved by 2030 if the hydrogen price drops to 30 CNY/kg,and by 2025 if the price falls to 25 CNY/kg.Consequently,with the significant reduction in vehicle manufacturing costs,HFC-HDTs are poised to achieve cost competitiveness against diesel trucks in the future,provided that hydrogen prices decrease further.
作者
赵珈艺
胡文宇
廖孟柯
韩天倚
周红莲
李忠政
ZHAO Jiayi;HU Wenyu;LIAO Mengke;HAN Tianyi;ZHOU Honglian;LI Zhongzheng(School of Vehicle and Mobility,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Economic and Technical Research Institute,State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830000,China)
出处
《汽车安全与节能学报》
北大核心
2026年第1期114-121,共8页
Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy
基金
清华大学和国网新疆电力有限公司经济技术研究院横向项目(SGXJJJ00KJJS2310054)
中国博士后科学基金第75批面上资助项目(2024M751664)
中国博士后科学基金第17批特别资助项目(2024T170457)
鄂尔多斯市可持续发展议程创新示范区建设项目(KCX2024009)。
关键词
氢能交通
电解制氢
全生命周期成本(TCO)
经济性
成本预测
hydrogen-powered transportation
electrolytic hydrogen production
total cost of ownership(TCO)
economic feasibility
cost forecasting
