摘要
探明流域内各驱动因子与水质演变的内在关系有助于环保部门因地制宜地开展水环境治理工作,但现有研究多根据流域内各点到监测断面的欧氏距离进行空间分析,且驱动因子常局限于人类活动或气候变化的某一方面,缺少对人类活动和气候变化驱动因子的综合分析。因此,研究基于长江流域的地区生产总值(GDP)分布数据、人口分布数据、土地利用类型分布数据、降水分布数据、气温分布数据、断面流量数据和断面水质数据,分别以汇流长度、欧氏距离、县级行政区边界和市级行政区边界划分了4种研究区域,对比研究了不同空间距离下,各类型驱动因子与长江干流典型监测断面水质演变间相关性的差异,进而识别出驱动因子的关键影响区域。研究结果表明,在长江流域,对于高锰酸盐指数、氨氮和总磷,汇流长度小于200 km的范围是长江水质的关键影响区域,且长江干流各监测断面驱动因子的主成分数量为3个,对应的总方差的解释程度平均为86.7%。其中,第一主成分包括GDP、人口、人均GDP、耕地面积和居民用地面积,第二主成分包括降水、草地面积、水域面积和林地面积,第三主成分包括气温和断面流量。
Revealing the intrinsic relationships between driving factors and water quality evolution within a river basin can support environmental authorities in implementing targeted water pollution control measures.However,existing studies predominantly conduct spatial analyses based on Euclidean distances from monitoring stations and often focus on either anthropogenic activities or climate change in isolation,lacking a comprehensive assessment of their combined effects.To address this gap,this study integrates multiple datasets from the Yangtze River Basin,including GDP distribution,population density,land use patterns,precipitation,temperature,flow discharge,and water quality monitoring data.Four distinct study zones were delineated based on flow accumulation length,Euclidean distance,countylevel administrative boundaries,and city-level administrative boundaries.A comparative analysis was performed to examine how different spatial scales influence the correlations between various driving factors and water quality trends at key monitoring stations along the Yangtze mainstem,thereby identifying critical influencing zones.The results demonstrate that for permanganate index(CODMn),ammonia nitrogen(NH3-N),and total phosphorus(TP),the area within a flow accumulation length of 200 km constitutes the key influencing zone for Yangtze water quality.Moreover,three principal components were identified as the dominant drivers across all monitoring stations,collectively explaining an average of 86.7%of the total variance.Specifically,the first principal component includes GDP,population,per capita GDP,cropland area,and residential land area.The second principal component consists of precipitation,grassland area,water body area,and forestland area.The third principal component includes temperature and cross-sectional flow.
作者
董文逊
张艳军
刘佳明
DONG Wen-xun;ZHANG Yan-jun;LIU Jia-ming(Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430010,Hubei Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan 430010,Hubei Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2026年第3期148-158,164,共12页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012302)
水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022003)
长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司自主科研项目(CX2024204-2)。
关键词
水质演变
水质驱动因子
关键影响区域
长江
water quality evolution
water quality driving forces
critical influencing zone
the Yangtze River
