摘要
气候变化和城市化进程加速背景下,极端天气事件频繁发生,城市洪涝问题日趋严峻。在多种降雨情景下进行洪涝过程模拟,分析洪涝风险空间分布和演变情况已成为当前研究热点。以杭州市钱塘区某典型区域为例,基于Mike Flood平台耦合Mike Urban、Mike 11和Mike 21模型,利用实测降雨积水数据对模型进行验证。基于研究区的降雨特性设定六种不同重现期降雨情景,模拟各降雨情景下的雨洪过程,从节点溢流、管网汇流和地表淹没3个过程分析内涝潜在风险,并利用积水深度和积水历时两个指标进行内涝风险区划。结果表明:耦合模型模拟结果与实测值平均误差为5.41%,能够较为准确地模拟真实淹没状况,具有较高的适用性;在高重现期降雨情景下,研究区部分区域存在严重的节点溢流、管道承压运行以及洪水淹没的风险,研究区排水管网设计标准偏低,难以应对极端降雨情景;随着重现期的增加,研究区溢流节点数量、管道充满度、最大淹没水深和各级内涝风险面积均呈现增长趋势,其中道路及其沿线、地势低洼区域、多路段十字交叉路口以及排水口附近为高风险区,需采取针对性防灾措施加以应对。相关研究结果可为完善城市洪涝风险管理工作提供参考。
Against the backdrop of accelerating climate change and urbanization,extreme weather events are occurring with increasing frequency,and urban flooding issues are becoming increasingly severe.Simulating flood processes under various rainfall scenarios and analyzing the spatial distribution and evolution of flood risks have become key research focuses.Taking a typical area in Qiantang District,Hangzhou City as an example,this study employs the Mike Flood platform to couple the Mike Urban,Mike 11,and Mike 21 models,and validates the models using actual rainfall and water accumulation data.Six different rainfall scenarios with varying recurrence intervals were set based on the rainfall characteristics of the study area.Flood processes under each rainfall scenario were simulated,and potential flooding risks were analyzed from three processes:node overflow,pipeline convergence,and surface flooding.Flooding risk zones were delineated using two indicators:water depth and duration of flooding.The results indicate that the coupled model simulation results have an average error of 5.41%compared to measured values,accurately simulating real flooding conditions and demonstrating high applicability.Under high recurrence period rainfall scenarios,certain areas of the study region face severe risks of node overflow,pipeline pressure operation,and flood inundation.The drainage pipeline design standards in the study region are insufficient to cope with extreme rainfall scenarios.As the recurrence period increases,the number of overflow nodes,pipeline filling rate,maximum flood depth,and flood risk areas at all levels in the study area all show an increasing trend.Among these,roads and their adjacent areas,low-lying areas,multi-lane intersections,and areas near drainage outlets are high-risk zones,necessitating targeted disaster prevention measures.These findings can provide references for improving urban flood risk management work.
作者
张磊磊
刘艳丽
鲁芳
徐楠涛
宋晓猛
ZHANG Lei-lei;LIU Yan-li;LU Fang;XU Nan-tao;SONG Xiao-meng(PowerChina HuaDong Engineering Corporation Limited,Hangzhou 311100,Zhejiang Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu Province,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Xuanen County Water Resources Bureau,Hubei,Enshi Autonomous Prefecture,Xuanen 445500,Hubei Province,China;School of Resources and Geosciences,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2026年第3期13-20,共8页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52325902,52361145889)。
