摘要
天山北坡经济带是丝绸之路经济带的核心区域之一,其社会经济发展长期受到水资源短缺的限制。水资源承载力作为衡量经济社会的发展空间的重要指标,其定量化研究对地区社会经济的可持续发展有着重要的意义。以水资源可利用量为刚性约束,提出了一种量化人口、经济和耕地承载规模和总体承载状态(严重超载、超载、临界和不超载)的水资源承载力评价方法,并基于该方法对天山北坡经济带1991-2020年的水资源承载力开展了定量评估。结果发现,(1)1991-2020年,水资源可承载的人口、经济和耕地规模均呈增加趋势,3个评估时段内(1991-2000,2001-2010,2011-2020),可承载的人口规模分别为706、801和859万人;可承载的GDP规模分别为469、2 274和6 125亿元;可承载的耕地规模分别为192.5、243.9和300.6万hm^(2)。(2)从承载状态来看,天山北坡经济带总体处于超载状态,但地区间的差异较大,2011-2020年属于严重超载状态的地区为昌吉、塔城和奎屯市。(3)从年代际变化看,昌吉、塔城、博州和奎屯市的水资源承载状态呈减弱趋势,而乌鲁木齐、石河子、五家渠和哈密市则呈增强态势。全区来看,1990s和2000s,水资源承载状态整体处于临界状态,到2010s,全区则转入超载状态。总体来看,天山北坡经济带水资源承载力形势严峻,建议从开源和节流角度多举措并举来提升地区水资源的承载能力。
The Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan(NSEBT)is one of the core regions of the Silk Road Economic Belt,and its socioeconomic development has long been limited by the shortage of water resources.Water resources carrying capacity is an important indicator of economic and social development space,and its quantitative research is of great significance to the sustainable development of regional socio-economic.This study proposes a method for evaluating water resources carrying capacity using water availability as a rigid constraint.This method can quantify the carrying capacity scales for population,economy,and cropland,as well as the overall carrying capacity status(severely overloaded,overloaded,critical,or not overloaded).Using this method,we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the NSEBT from 1991 to 2020.Our results indicate that the sizes of population,economy,and cropland that can be supported by water resources all exhibited an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020.Specifically,during the three assessment periods(1991-2000,2001-2010,2011-2020),the population carrying capacities are 7.06,8.01 and 8.59 million respectively,the GDP carrying capacities are 46.9,227.4 and 612.5 billion yuan,respectively,and the cropland carrying capacities are 19251,24393 and 30059 km^(2),respectively.Despite these increases,the whole region remained in an overloaded status,with significant variation across administrative regions.During 2011-2020,,Changji,Tacheng,and Kuitun were classified as severely overloaded status.Inter-decadal changes show that the water resources carrying state worsened in Changji,Tacheng,Bozhou and Kuitun,while it improved in Urumqi,Shihezi,Wujiaqu and Hami.The carrying state of the whole region shifted from a critical state in the 1990s and 2000s to an overloaded state in the 2010s.Given the severe situation of water resources carrying capacity in the NSEBT,we proposed a range of initiatives to enhance the carrying capacity of water resources,focusing on both increasing water supply and reducing water demand.
作者
白鹏
杨泽龙
龙秋波
BAI Peng;YANG Ze-long;LONG Qiu-bo(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Hunan Water Resources and Hydropower Survey,Design,Planning and Research Co.,Ltd,Changsha 410007,Hunan Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2026年第3期7-12,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(4227103)。
关键词
水资源承载力
水资源
刚性约束
承载力
天山北坡
water resources carrying capacity
water resources
rigid constraint
carry capacity
the north slope of Tianshan
