摘要
受长江上游两河口、乌东德、白鹤滩水库建成运行的影响,三峡水库的来水来沙和水文情势发生了显著改变,现有的运行方案已经无法满足新需求。基于长江上游流域1961-2022年降雨和宜昌水文站1882-2022年流量资料系列,采用多种数理统计方法对三峡水库汛期进行划分。进一步分析长江中下游梅雨和华西秋雨时序特征、对比三峡实测和还原入库洪峰洪量,探讨三峡水库汛期划分和运行水位动态调整的必要性和可行性。依据降雨流量资料系列统计分析得到三峡水库的主汛期从6月21日至9月10日。梅雨主要集中在6月下旬至7月份;华西秋雨8月下旬开始,长江上游大部分水库进入蓄水期,导致三峡入库洪水量级显著减小。综上,建议将三峡水库汛期细分为4个阶段,即汛前消落期(5月1日至6月20日)、梅雨主汛期(6月21日至7月31日)、过渡期(8月1日至9月10日)和华西秋雨蓄水期(9月11日至10月31日)。在实际运行调度中,可根据气象预报的入梅和出梅日期确定各分期节点,出梅后三峡水库预留的防洪库容可以逐步释放并上浮运行水位,华西秋雨期间择机提前蓄水;依据1~5 d洪水预报过程开展运行水位动态控制,统筹考虑防洪抗旱和水资源高效利用的需求,进一步提高三峡水库的综合利用效益。
After the operation of Lianghekou,Wudongde,and Baihetan Reservoirs in the upper Yangtze River,the inflow discharge and sediment of Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)has significant changed.As a result,the current operation scheme of TGR can no longer meet the new demands.Based on rainfall data from the upper Yangtze River basin(1961-2022)and flow data from the Yichang Hydrological Station(1882-2022),the flood season is divided by using several mathematical statistical methods.Furthermore,the temporal evolution patterns of Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Autumn Rain in west China is analyzed,the TGR observed and restored inflow peak discharges and flood volumes are compared,and the necessity and feasibility of dynamically adjusting seasonal division and operational water levels are also discussed.The main flood season of the TGR is determined to be from June 21 to September 10 based on statistical analysis of rainfall and flow data series.The Meiyu is mainly occurred in late June and July,while the Autumn Rain begins in late August.Most reservoirs in the upper Yangtze River enter the refill period and TGR inflow peak discharges are reduced significantly.In summary,it is suggested to divide the TGR flood season into four periods:i.e.,drawdown period(May 1-June 20),Meiyu flood period(June 21-July 31),transition period(Aug.1-Sept.10),and Autumn Rain refill period(Sept.11-Oct.31).In practical operation scheduling,the phased transition points can be determined based on the forecasted dates of Meiyu onset and retreat.Following the Meiyu retreat,the flood control capacity reserved by the TGR may be gradually released,allowing a controlled rise in operational water levels.During the Autumn Rain period in West China,opportunities should be seized to initiate early impoundment.Dynamic control of operational water levels is implemented based on 1~5 day flood forecasting processes,balancing flood-drought mitigation and efficient water resource utilization.This integrated approach significantly enhances the comprehensive benefits of the Three Gorges Reservoir.
作者
汪肖雅
郭生练
王孟悦
王小君
梁志明
李娜
WANG Xiao-ya;GUO Sheng-lian;WANG Meng-yue;WANG Xiao-jun;LIANG Zhi-ming;LI Na(China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.Cascade Reservoir Dispatching Center,Yichang 443000,Hubei Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2026年第3期1-6,12,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
中国长江电力股份公司资助项目(Z242402005)
国家自然科学基金长江联合基金资助项目(U2340205)。
关键词
三峡水库
汛期划分
运行水位
动态控制
梅雨
华西秋雨
Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)
flood season division
operation water level
dynamic control
Meiyu
Autumn Rain
