摘要
基于莲子草、空心莲子草及莲草直胸跳甲在中国的分布和23种环境变量数据,本研究使用MaxEnt和ArcGIS模拟了三者在当前以及未来气候情景下的适生区,评估了影响其分布的主导环境因素,确定了其潜在分布区域和质心变化。研究结果表明:最暖季度降水量、人类活动和气温季节性变动系数在莲子草、空心莲子草的地理分布中起主要作用,而最暖季度降水量、人类活动和海拔是影响莲草直胸跳甲分布的主要环境因子。当前气候条件下,三者适生区均集中于中国南方地区,其中莲子草高适生区分布集中在江苏、浙江、福建、广东、广西等省、自治区,面积约为1.08万km^(2);空心莲子草高适生区集中于江苏、贵州、四川等省份,面积约为0.44万km^(2);而其天敌莲草直胸跳甲高适生区范围最广,覆盖华东、华中、华南地区,面积约为13.75万km^(2)。未来气候情景预测显示,莲草直胸跳甲的适生区将呈现向北迁移趋势。生态位分析则显示,空心莲子草与莲子草之间存在高度重叠。本研究系统阐明了气候变化背景下“本地种-入侵种-天敌”三者的协同分布演变规律,为制定基于生物防治的空心莲子草防控策略提供了科学依据。
Based on the distribution and 23 environmental variable data of Alternanthera sessilis,A.philoxeroides and Agasicles hygrophila in China,MaxEnt and ArcGIS were used for simulation and analysis to determine their suitable habitat areas,evaluate the main environmental factors affecting their distribution,determine potential distribution areas and centroids,and predict changes in suitable habitat areas under future climate scenarios.The results indicate that the seasonal variation coefficients of precipitation,human activities,and temperature in the warmest season play a major role in the geographical distribution of A.sessilis and A.philoxeroides,while precipitation,human activities,and altitude in the warmest season are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of A.hygrophila.Under current climate conditions,the suitable areas for the three species are mainly in southern China,with the high suitable areas for A.sessilis concentrated in Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi,and other areas,covering an area of approximately 10800 km^(2);The high suitable areas for A.philoxeroides are concentrated in Jiangsu,Guizhou,Sichuan and other places,with an area of about 4400 km^(2);The high suitable habitat area for A.hygrophila is mainly in East China,Central China,and South China,with an area of approximately 137500 km^(2).In the future climate scenario,the suitable habitat area for A.hygrophila will migrate northward.Niche analysis shows a high degree of overlap between A.sessilis and A.philoxeroides.This study systematically elucidates the synergistic distribution and evolution law of"local species,invasive species and natural enemies"under the background of climate change,providing a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for A.philoxeroides based on biological control.
作者
肖盼
朱晓晗
肖海艳
陈书怡
苏启陶
杜丽
王宁
XIAO Pan;ZHU Xiaohan;XIAO Haiyan;CHEN Shuyi;SU Qitao;DU Li;WANG Ning(School of Life Sciences,Jinggangshan University,Ji’an,Jiangxi 343009,China;Key Laboratory of Jiangxi Province for Biological Invasion Biosecurity,Ji’an,Jiangxi 343009,China;School of Building Engineering,Jinggangshan University,Ji’an,Jiangxi 343009,China)
出处
《井冈山大学学报(自然科学版)》
2026年第2期71-81,共11页
Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32560269,31660123)
井冈山大学博士科研启动项目(JZB2005)。
