摘要
目的:分析2011~2021年常州市肿瘤登记地区膀胱癌发病趋势及年龄变化规律,预测2022~2027年膀胱癌发病趋势。方法:基于2011~2021年常州市膀胱癌发病数据,计算粗发病率与标化发病率的平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)及其95%CI。采用线性回归分析发病年龄趋势,建立灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型进行发病趋势预测。结果:常州市膀胱癌粗发病率从2011年的6.04/10万升至2021年的9.20/10万(AAPC=4.50%,P<0.05),标化发病率由4.33/10万增至5.26/10万(AAPC=2.38%,P<0.05)。农村地区粗发病率的AAPC是城市的2.03倍,标化发病率的AAPC是城市的4.09倍。年龄分层显示:60~69岁人群发病率显著上升(AAPC=5.18%,P<0.05),其他年龄组无统计学差异。全人群标化平均发病年龄从2011至2021年呈持续增长趋势,年均增加0.12岁。男性发病高峰位于65~69岁组,较女性(70~74岁组)提前5年。预测模型显示,总人群2022~2027年膀胱癌发病率将持续上升,2027年预计达12.43/10万。结论:常州市膀胱癌发病率呈持续增长态势,农村增幅显著高于城市,男性发病高峰较女性早5年。应重点针对农村地区、男性群体及高龄人群制定分层筛查策略。
Objective:To analyze the 2011~2021 trends and age-specific patterns of bladder cancer in the Changzhou cancer registry and to forecast the incidence trend for 2022~2027.Methods:Using Changzhou bladder cancer registry data(2011~2021),the average annual percent change(AAPC)with 95%CI was calculated for crude and age-standardized incidence rates.Linear regression was used to analyze trends in age at diagnosis,and a Gray-Markov GM(1,1)was constructed to predict future incidence.Results:The crude incidence rate increased from 6.04 to 9.20 per 100,000 between 2011 and 2021(AAPC=4.50%;P<0.05).Over the same period,the age-standardized rate rose from 4.33 to 5.26 per100,000(AAPC=2.38%;P<0.05).Compared to urban areas,the AAPC was 2.03 times higher for the crude rate and 4.09 times higher for the age-standardized rate in rural areas.Age-stratified analysis revealed a significant increase in the 60~69 age group(AAPC=5.18%,P<0.05),with no significant changes observed in other age groups.The standardized mean age at diagnosis increased annually by 0.12 years from 2011 to 2021.Male incidence peaked in the 65~69 age group,preceding the female peak(70~74 age group)by 5 years.The model predicts a continuing upward trend,with the total population incidence projected to reach 12.43 per 100,000 by 2027.Conclusion:The incidence of bladder cancer in Changzhou increased continuously from 2011 to 2021,with a significantly higher growth rate in rural than in urban areas.Additionally,the peak incidence age in males was 5 years earlier than in females.Therefore,stratified screening strategies should be prioritized for high-risk groups,including rural residents,males,and the elderly population.
作者
丁梦珂
骆文书
徐文超
倪名扬
Ding Mengke;Luo Wenshu;Xu Wenchao;Ni Mingyang(Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control Department,Changzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changzhou 213000,Jiangsu,China;School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《肿瘤预防与治疗》
2026年第1期28-35,共8页
Journal of Cancer Control And Treatment
基金
南京医科大学常州公共卫生高等研究院开放课题基金项目(编号:CPHM202304)。
