摘要
在全球气候变暖的背景下,极端干旱事件对农业生产构成严重威胁,研究干旱对农业的影响对于保障区域粮食安全和水资源管理具有重要意义。以重庆市为研究区,基于气象部门预测数据,建立水量平衡供需关系指标,对全市农业缺水量、重点作物需水量等进行干旱评估与预测。结果表明:(1)预计在8月下旬至9月上旬,部分区县的红薯和蔬菜种植将出现阶段性干旱缺水,持续时长约7 d;11~12月降雨偏少,主城都市区和渝东北部分区域可能出现较大范围的油菜缺水现象,但缺水量总体较小,对油菜生长影响有限。(2)结合降雨趋势与蓄水工程调度情况分析,预测2024年不会发生与2022年同等强度的干旱事件,经验证该预测结果与2024年实际旱情基本吻合。研究成果可为重庆市农业生产布局、干旱应对策略制定及水资源统筹管理提供科学依据。
Under the context of global climate warming,extreme drought events pose serious threats to agricultural production,making research on the impact of droughts on agriculture highly significant for ensuring regional food security and water resource management.Taking Chongqing City as the study area,this research utilized meteorological department forecast data to establish water balance supply-demand relationship indicators,conducting drought assessment and prediction for the entire municipality′s agricultural water shortage and key crop water requirements.The results indicate that from late August to early September,some districts and counties are expected to experience periodic drought-related water shortages for sweet potatoes and vegetable cultivation,lasting approximately seven days.From November to December,with reducing rainfalls,the main urban areas and parts of northeastern Chongqing City may face relatively widespread water shortages for rapeseed cultivation,though the overall water shortage is expected to be limited,with minimal impact on rapeseed growth.Combined analysis of rainfall trends and water storage project operations suggests that a drought event of intensity comparable to that of 2022 is unlikely to occur in 2024.Verification shows that this prediction aligns with the actual drought conditions in 2024.The study provides scientific support for optimizing agricultural production layout,formulating drought response strategies,and coordinating water resource management in Chongqing City.
作者
杨洪波
李文浩
熊玉江
YANG Hongbo;LI Wenhao;XIONG Yujiang(College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Department of Agricultural Water Resources,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2026年第2期74-79,共6页
Yangtze River
基金
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0198)。
关键词
干旱预测
农业生产
水量平衡
供需关系
水资源管理
重庆市
drought prediction
agricultural production
water balance
supply-demand relationship
water resource management
Chongqing City
