摘要
为探究适用于生产矿井的涌水量预测方法,首先,从大井概念模型出发,分析了煤矿“大井”需数十年才能形成,地下水流场时效性参数难以获取,吉哈尔经验公式存在过度延伸引用、少量的参数代表性不足等问题,综合导致大井法预计误差高达84%~398%。其次,基于矿井涌水量历时曲线特征是井田水文地质条件综合反映的观点,提出了基于趋势线的矿井涌水量预测方法;通过建立新型涌水量台账计算得到的吨煤富水系数更接近实际情况,提升了富水系数法预测的准确性。最后,以同一矿井为例,分别采用富水系数法和趋势线法对矿井未来3年的涌水量进行了预测,2种方法所得结果的相对误差为14.2%~17.3%。综合对比上述3种方法,大井法适用于矿井初设阶段和投产初期阶段,而生产矿井宜采用富水系数法或趋势线法,其前提是涌水量数据采集需具备连续性和完整性。
To identify a more effective method for predicting water inflow in production mines,this study first examines the“large well”conceptual model.The formation of“large wells”in coal mines typically requires several decades,making it difficult to obtain time-dependent groundwater parameters.Additionally,the Gal empirical formula relies on limited parameters and is prone to overextension,resulting in high prediction errors ranging from 84%to 398%.Recognizing that mine water inflow over time reflects the site’s hydrogeological conditions,this study introduces the potential line method for water inflow prediction.By calculating the water-rich coefficient based on updated inflow data,the accuracy of predictions improves compared to traditional methods.Using a case study of a single mine,water inflow was predicted using both the water-rich coefficient method and the trend line method.The relative errors for these approaches ranged from 14.2%to 17.3%.Overall,the large well method is best suited for the early stages of mine design and initial production.For ongoing operations,the water-rich coefficient method or trend line method is recommended,provided that water inflow data is collected continuously and comprehensively.
作者
吕玉广
张强
吕文卿
Lyu Yuguang;Zhang Qiang;Lyu Wenqing(School of Earth and Environment,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232000,China;Inner Mongolia Xinglong Energy Group Co.,Ltd.,Ordos 016299,China;Second Exploration Bureau of China Coal Geology Bureau,Zhuozhou 072750,China)
出处
《矿业安全与环保》
北大核心
2026年第1期178-184,共7页
Mining Safety & Environmental Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42274186)。
关键词
矿井涌水量预测
大井法
富水系数法
趋势线法
涌水量台账
适用性
mine water inflow prediction
large well method
water enrichment coefficient method
trend line method
water inflow accounting log
applicability
