摘要
为了确保配电网安全运行并提升分布式光伏的接纳能力,研究提出一种融合源荷时空关联与不确定性因素的消纳能力评估方法。该方法采用Beta分布和正态分布建模光照与负荷不确定性,利用Spearman秩相关系数刻画时空相关性,结合机会约束规划与Benders分解构建双层优化模型,实现对可消纳容量的精准评估。实验结果表明,研究设计的消纳能力评估可实现较好的评估准确性,平均绝对误差、均方误差分别取值0.179、0.106,面对时间尺度变化和负荷需求变化时,评估准确度均表现出较好的稳定性和较强的适应性。应用该模型后,配电网的弃光率低至0.20,新能源消纳率最高接近0.95,容量渗透率与穿透功率极限降低至最低水平。研究有助于提高电力系统的稳定性和可靠性,保障电力供应的安全和稳定,为社会经济发展提供有力保障。
In order to ensure the safe operation of the distribution network and enhance the acceptance capacity of distributed photovoltaic power,a consumption capacity assessment method integrating the spatio-temporal correlation of source and load and uncertain factors is studied and proposed.This method models the uncertainties of illumination and load by using the Beta distribution and normal distribution,characterizes the spatio-temporal correlation by using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient,and constructs a two-layer optimization model by combining opportunistic constraint programming and Benders decomposition to achieve an accurate assessment of the capacity that can be consumed.The experimental results show that the consumption capacity assessment designed by the study can realize better assessment accuracy,with the average absolute error and mean square error taking the values of 0.179 and 0.106,respectively,and the assessment accuracy shows better stability and stronger adaptability in the face of time scale changes and load demand changes.After applying the model,the discard rate of the distribution network is as low as 0.20,the highest new energy consumption rate is close to 0.95,and the capacity penetration rate and penetrating power limit are reduced to the lowest level.The study helps to improve the stability and reliability of the power system,guarantee the security and stability of power supply,and provide a strong guarantee for social and economic development.
作者
王杰
蒙婷婷
颜芸芸
张俊成
罗天禄
WANG Jie;MENG Tingting;YAN Yunyun;ZHANG Juncheng;LUO Tianlu(Guigang Power Supply Bureau,Guangxi Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guigang Guangxi 537100,China)
出处
《自动化与仪器仪表》
2025年第11期239-243,共5页
Automation & Instrumentation
基金
广西电网公司科技项目资助《面向新型电力系统电源接入配电网消纳预测及消纳能力提升关键技术研究》(GXKJXM20240108)。
关键词
源荷关联性
不确定性
配电网
分布式光伏
消纳能力
source-load correlation
uncertainty
distribution network
distributed photovoltaic
consumption capacity
