摘要
针对城市轨道交通网络在运营中断情景下的脆弱性问题,提出一种兼顾网络结构、客流作用和乘客行为响应的系统性评估方法.首先,基于累积前景理论(Cumulative Prospect Theory,CPT)与嵌套Logit(Nested Logit,NL)模型,构建可刻画突发事件下乘客有限理性和风险规避特征的出行选择行为CPT-NL模型;然后,设计城市多模式交通网络下的城轨网络脆弱性分析框架,建立反映运营中断和客流作用影响的脆弱性量化指标;最后,以深圳市轨道交通网络为案例,选取高峰小时客流数据,系统模拟区间和换乘站点中断,量化网络性能损失与乘客出行影响.研究结果表明:关键区间或换乘站的失效不仅降低了网络连通性,更会引发大规模的客流拥堵和明显的出行延误,在区间中断下,受影响乘客比例最高达14.78%,网络脆弱性水平最高达12.02%;在换乘站中断时,受影响乘客比例最高达11.73%,网络脆弱性水平最高达5.53%;延误乘客数量明显高于因中断放弃轨道出行的损失乘客,表明大部分乘客选择城轨网络内绕行或组合出行方案.运营管理者应加强高脆弱性节点运维及应急预案,优化多模式交通调度,以提升城市轨道交通系统抗干扰能力与运营稳定性.
To address the vulnerability of urban rail transit networks during operational disruptions,this study proposes a systematic evaluation method that integrates network structure,passenger flow dynamics,and passenger behavioral responses.First,a CPT-NL model of travel choice behavior is developed based on Cumulative Prospect Theory(CPT)and the Nested Logit(NL)model.This model captures passengers'bounded rationality and risk aversion under emergency conditions.Second,a vulnerability analysis framework is designed for urban rail networks within multimodal transportation systems,establishing quantitative vulnerability metrics that reflect the combined impacts of operational disruptions and passenger flow dynamics.Finally,using Shenzhen's rail transit network as a case study,peak-hour passenger flow data are employed to systematically simulate disruptions at sections and transfer stations,quantifying network performance losses and passenger travel impacts.The results indicate that failures at critical sections or transfer stations reduce network connectivity and trigger large-scale passenger congestion and significant travel delays.During section disruptions,the proportion of affected passengers reaches up to 14.78%,with network vulnerability peaking at 12.02%.During transfer station disruptions,the proportion of affected passengers peaks at 11.73%,and network vulnerability reaches 5.53%.The number of delayed passengers significantly exceeds the number who abandon rail travel due to disruptions,indicating that most passengers opt for detours within the rail network or multimodal travel alternatives.Operational management should strengthen maintenance and emergency preparedness for high-vulnerability nodes,while optimizing multimodal transportation scheduling to improve the resilience and operational stability of urban rail transit systems.
作者
宁丽巧
张冬荧
乔珂
林之涧
NING Liqiao;ZHANG Dongying;QIAO Ke;LIN Zhijian(School of Transportation,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《北京交通大学学报》
北大核心
2026年第1期48-58,共11页
JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY
基金
国家自然科学基金(52202379)
福建理工大学科研启动基金(GY-Z23211)。
关键词
交通运输规划与管理
城市轨道交通
网络脆弱性
乘客出行选择
累积前景理论
transportation planning and management
urban rail transit
network vulnerability
passenger travel choice
cumulative prospect theory
