摘要
目的探讨中国非酒精性脂肪性肝病(non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,NAFLD)相关肝硬化的发病趋势及影响因素,预测未来疾病负担,为公共卫生防控策略提供依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(The Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2021年数据库,采用联结点回归模型分析1990—2021年中国NAFLD相关肝硬化的发病趋势,应用年龄-时期-队列模型量化相关影响因素,并利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来发病情况。结果1990—2021年间中国NAFLD相关肝硬化标化发病率持续上升,男性和女性年均增长率分别为0.70%和0.79%(均P<0.05);年龄效应显示发病率呈U型变化特征,60~69岁人群风险最高;时期效应提示2017—2021年为发病高峰;队列效应表明1992—1996年出生人群风险最突出。模型预测表明2030年标化发病率将进一步攀升,男性达578.40/10万,女性达930.61/10万。结论中国NAFLD相关肝硬化疾病负担持续加重,未来发病风险预计继续攀升,需重点关注中老年人群和性别差异,制定针对性防控措施。
Objective To investigate the incidence trends and influencing factors of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)-related cirrhosis in China,predict future disease burden,and provide evidence for public health prevention strategies.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,we employed joinpoint regression analysis to analyze NAFLD-related cirrhosis trends in China from 1990 to 2021,quantified influencing factors using ageperiod-cohort modeling,and predicted future incidence through Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.Results The agestandardized incidence rates(ASIRs)of NAFLD-related cirrhosis showed a persistent increase from 1990 to 2021,with annual percentage changes(APCs)of 0.70%for male and 0.79%for female(both P<0.05).Age-effects revealed a U-shaped variation pattern,peaking in the 60-69 age group.Period effects indicated an incidence peak during 2017-2021.Cohort effects showed the most prominent risk in the 1992-1996 birth cohort.Projections suggested ASIR would further increase to 578.40 and 930.61 per 100000 population for males and females,respectively,by 2030.Conclusions The disease burden of NAFLD-related cirrhosis continues to worsen in China,with future incidence rates projected to keep rising.Priority attention should be given to middle-aged and elderly populations and sex differences,with targeted prevention and control measures needing to be developed.
作者
刘茜
李丫妹
张天成
LIU Xi;Li Yamei;ZHANG Tiancheng(School of Public Health,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan 421001,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2026年第2期7-11,共5页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
关键词
非酒精性脂肪性肝病
肝硬化
发病趋势
预测模型
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
Cirrhosis
Incidence trend
Prediction model
