摘要
本文基于2008—2023年中国297个地级及以上城市面板数据,构建多维综合评价体系,综合运用人口加权变异系数、马尔科夫链和空间格局分析等方法,系统考察区域协调发展的时空演进特征。研究发现:(1)区域协调发展呈现“总量趋缓、结构分化”特征,总体保持波动改善,但省内差距长期高于南北差距。(2)动态演进存在“宏观收敛、微观分化”的尺度差异。宏观板块间具备内生追赶动力,中间梯队向上跃升概率较高;但省内表现出一定的“马太效应”,中间水平城市面临下行压力,核心增长极对周边的带动作用有待增强。(3)区域差距具有显著的“俱乐部趋同”特征,低水平协调状态锁定效应明显,打破路径依赖面临长期挑战。(4)空间格局呈现“总量分散、差距集聚”特征,高水平区域呈多点支撑布局,而高失衡区域则呈连片集聚态势。
Based on panel data from Chinese cities spanning 2008 to 2023,this paper constructs a multidimensional comprehensive evaluation system and systematically examines the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of regional coordinated development by employing methods such as the populationweighted coefficient of variation,Markov chains,and spatial point pattern analysis.The study finds that:First,regional coordinated development exhibits the characteristics of"aggregate moderation and structural differentiation."While maintaining an overall trend of fluctuating improvement,the intra-provincial gap has consistently exceeded the north-south gap.Second,the dynamic evolution reveals scalar heterogeneity characterized by"macro-level convergence and micro-level divergence."Macro-regions possess endogenous catch-up momentum,with the intermediate tier showing a higher probability of upward mobility.Conversely,a"Matthew effect"is evident within provinces,where cities at the intermediate level face downward pressure,and the radiative driving effect of core growth poles on their peripheries remains to be strengthened.Third,regional disparities demonstrate significant"club convergence"characteristics.The lock-in effect of the low-level coordination state is pronounced,making the breaking of path dependence a long-term challenge.Fourth,the spatial pattern presents a feature of"dispersion of strengths and agglomeration of weaknesses."',High-level coordination regions exhibit a multi-point supporting layout,whereas regions with high imbalances show a trend of contiguous agglomeration.
作者
赵家未
崔松涛
ZHAO Jiawei;CUI Songtao
出处
《经济问题探索》
北大核心
2026年第2期80-97,共18页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“新时代区域协调发展战略研究”(20JZD028),项目负责人:李兰冰。
关键词
区域协调发展
南北差距
省内差距
动态演进
空间分析
Regional coordinated development
North-south disparity
Intra-provincial disparity
Four major regions
Spatial analysis
