摘要
建筑业是国民经济的支柱产业之一,在推动经济社会发展中发挥着举足轻重的作用,其作为一个庞大的产业链,不仅能够带动相关行业的增长,还直接影响就业、人民生活质量等。文章采用山东省1998—2023年的建筑业和经济发展相关数据,结合计量软件Eviews、R及Matlab,对山东省建筑业总产值与国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:山东省建筑业总产值与GDP之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,但短期来看,建筑业的波动对经济增长的影响不大,且经济对建筑业的影响也不显著;建筑业总产值是GDP的单向格兰杰原因,存在长期的建筑业增长指向经济增长的单向因果关系。
The construction industry is one of the pillar industries of the national economy and plays a vital role in promoting economic and social development.As a huge and complex industrial chain,it not only drives the growth of related industries,but also directly affects employment and resident's quality of life.Using data on the construction industry and economic development of Shandong Province from 1998 to 2023,this study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between the total output value of the construction industry and the gross domestic product(GDP)of Shandong Province by applying econometric software including EViews,R,and MATLAB.The results show that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the total output value of the construction industry and GDP in Shandong Province;however,in the short term,fluctuations in the construction industry have little impact on economic growth,and economic fluctuations do not exert a significant impact on the construction industry.Granger causality analysis indicates that the total output value of the construction industry is a unidirectional Granger cause of GDP,demonstrating a long-term one-way causal relationship in which the growth of the construction industry drives economic growth.
作者
车参仪
赵庆利
李存杰
CHE Canyi;ZHAO Qingli;LI Cunjie(School of Science,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,China)
出处
《山东建筑大学学报》
2026年第1期119-126,共8页
Journal of Shandong Jianzhu University
基金
教育部产学研协同育人项目(231107099132923)
山东省教育科学规划创新素养专项重点课题(2022CZD006)。
关键词
建筑业
国民经济
协整检验
格兰杰因果分析
construction industry
national economy
cointegration test
Granger causality analysis
