摘要
文章利用巴中地区1969-2023年的降雨资料,构建了基于加权马尔可夫链、灰色预测和模糊集的降雨量预测模型,对2021-2023年的年降雨量和汛期降雨量进行预测。结果表明:利用加权马尔可夫链模型和灰色-马尔可夫链模型预测年降雨量时,最大概率的作用在巴中地区不突出;汛期降雨量预测方面,最大概率的作用在南部地区比北部地区更突出。在年降雨量预测方面,南江、巴中、平昌三站更适用于加权马尔可夫链模型,通江站更适用于灰色-加权马尔可夫链模型;在汛期降雨量预测方面,巴中、通江、平昌三站更适用于灰色-加权马尔可夫链模型;南江更适用于加权马尔可夫链模型。灰色-加权马尔可夫链模型在预测极端降雨量的相对误差上优于加权马尔可夫链模型。
The article uses rainfall data from 1969 to 2023 in the Bazhong region to construct a rainfall prediction model based on weighted Markov chain,grey prediction,and fuzzy set.It predicts the annual and flood season rainfall from 2021 to 2023.The results show that the maximum probability effect is not prominent in Bazhong region when using weighted Markov chain model and grey Markov chain model to predict annual rainfall.The role of the highest probability in predicting rainfall during the flood season is more prominent in the southern region than in the northern region.In terms of annual rainfall prediction,Nanjiang,Bazhong,and Pingchang stations are more suitable for weighted Markov chain models,while Tongjiang station is more suitable for grey weighted Markov chain models.In terms of predicting rainfall during the flood season,Bazhong,Tongjiang,and Pingchang stations are more suitable for the grey weighted Markov chain model.Nanjiang is more suitable for weighted Markov chain models.The grey weighted Markov chain model has a better relative error in predicting extreme rainfall than the weighted Markov chain model.
作者
刘锐
罗晓林
邱凯鹏
李竞
Liu Rui;Luo Xiaolin;Qiu Kaipeng;Li Jing(Tongjiao Meteorological Bureau,Tongjiao 636700;Bazhou Meteorological Bureau,Bazhou 636000;Pingchang Meteorological Bureau,Pingchang 636400)
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2026年第1期39-43,共5页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
基金
巴中市气象局科研课题“巴中地区降水集中度与集中期特征分析”(202402)资助。
