摘要
为了保障我国天然气资源的西部运输通道的进口安全,采用对比研究和供需平衡分析法,对中国与中亚地区天然气合作的现状和面临的挑战展开了分析,并提出了合作的建议。研究结果表明:(1)中亚地区待发现天然气资源量全球占比为12.1%,哈土乌三国天然气产量仅占全球天然气总产量的5%,仍有较大开发潜力;(2)中亚天然气进口量占中国天然气进口总量的24%,占中国管道天然气进口总量的六成,是中国广大北方地区冬季用气的重要保障;(3)中国石油公司的净储量和净产量在土库曼斯坦位居外国石油公司首位,中国-中亚天然气管道输气能力相当于中亚-欧洲管道输气能力的六成,输送能力仍有提升空间;(4)中亚地区向中国出口天然气的管输费率高于其他典型过境国的管输费率;(5)中亚地区各国天然气消费量增加,优先满足本国需求成为趋势;(7) 2022年中俄管线建成开通,导致中亚管道气进口量与2021年相比下跌19.2%;(8)受到塔吉克斯坦影响,中国-中亚天然气管道D线建设遇阻。为了保障我国天然气西部运输通道的进口安全,提出了开展哈萨克斯坦东部中小盆地油气调查合作填图、加大对管道上游气源和产业链的合作力度、加强中亚地区能源外交等建议。
In this study,both status and challenges on natural-gas cooperation between China and Central Asia were discussed by means of both comparison and method of supply-demand balance analysis in order to ensure the security of imported natural gas transported across pipelines in western China.Moreover,some suggestions were made for this cooperation.Results show that(i)the global proportion of gas resources undiscovered in Central Asia accounts for 12.1%,while Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan only around 5%of the global production,indicating greater potential in natural-gas development;(ii)the imported natural gas from Central Asia accounts for 24%of China's total gas imports and 60%of China's total pipeline gas imports,providing essential guarantee for gas consumption in Northern China in winter;(iii)net reserves and net production from China's petroleum companies in Turkmenistan rank the first among other companies in this country,and the gas transmission capacity of the China-Central Asia natural-gas pipeline is equivalent to 60%of that in the Central Asia-Europe pipeline,indicating there is still something to be improved;(iv)the pipe transportation rate for natural gas exported from Central Asia to China is higher than that of other typical transit countries;(v)in Central Asian countries,gas consumption increases,resulting in a trend of prioritizing their demand;(vi)the China-Russia pipeline built in 2022 leads to a decrease of pipeline gas imported from Central Asia by 19.2%compared with that in 2021;and(vii)affected by Tajikistan situation,constructing D sub-line in China-Central Asia gas pipeline has been obstructed.It is suggested to carry out oil and gas survey and cooperative mapping for small-and medium-sized basins in eastern Kazakhstan,and strengthen cooperation in pipeline upstream gas sources and industrial chain,as well as energy diplomacy with Central Asia.
作者
陈骥
余韵
尹思奇
陈文
徐犇研
王承洋
杨建锋
CHEN Ji;YU Yun;YIN Siqi;CHEN Wen;XU Benyan;WANG Chenyang;YANG Jianfeng(Development Research Center,China Geological Survey,Beijing 100037,China;Nanfang Company,Sinopec Geophysical Corporation,Cheng-du,Sichuan 610016,China;Marine Geological Survey of Hainan Province,Haikou,Hainan 570206,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2026年第1期9-14,共6页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
中国地质调查局发展研究中心地质调查项目“地质调查规划与部署”(编号:DD20243304)
中国地质调查局发展研究中心地质调查项目“地质调查规划部署与成果集成”(编号:DD20221828)。
关键词
“一带一路”
中亚地区
天然气合作
现状和展望
Belt and Road Initiative
Central Asia
Natural-gas cooperation
Status and outlook
