摘要
为克服传统方法在分析冲击地压多因素耦合致灾方面的不足,精准解析该灾害的致因逻辑并实现风险前置管控,本文以2001-2024年间56份权威事故调查报告为样本,利用FP-growth算法对非结构化文本进行挖掘,通过支持度-置信度-提升度三维过滤机制提取高频共现致因;继而融合挖掘结果与领域知识,构建具备先验-后验动态更新能力的贝叶斯网络拓扑,实现致因链的概率推理与风险反演。揭示了“地质-开采-管理”因素耦合的非线性致灾规律,定量识别出煤岩冲击倾向性、地质构造、开采深度等地质因素的主导作用,以及采掘扰动、煤柱等开采因素的关键触发效应,同时明确了安全意识不足等管理因素的风险放大作用。基于量化分析结果,提出了针对性的冲击地压风险前置管控措施,为煤矿企业优化开采方案与精准部署卸压监测工程提供了科学依据,可推动冲击地压防治由经验驱动向数据-知识协同驱动转型。
To overcome the limitations of traditional methods in analyzing the multi-factor coupling disaster of rock burst,accurately decipher the causal logic of this hazard,and achieve proactive risk management,this study utilizes 56 authoritative accident investigation reports from 2001 to 2024 as samples.The FP-growth algorithm is employed to mine unstructured text,extracting high-frequency co-occurrence causes through a three-dimensional filtering mechanism based on support,confidence,and lift.Subsequently,the mining results are integrated with domain knowledge to construct a Bayesian network topology with prior-posterior dynamic updating capability,enabling probabilistic reasoning of the causal chain and risk inversion.The study reveals the nonlinear disaster patterns arising from the coupling of"geology-mining-management"factors,quantitatively identifies the dominant role of geological factors such as coal-rock impact propensity,geological structures,and mining depth,as well as the key triggering effects of mining factors like excavation disturbances and coal pillars.It also clarifies the risk amplification effect of management factors,such as insufficient safety awareness.Based on the quantitative analysis results,targeted proactive control measures for rock burst risk are proposed,providing a scientific basis for coal mining enterprises to optimize mining plans and precisely deploy pressure relief monitoring projects.This approach can facilitate the transition of rock burst prevention and control from experience-driven to data-knowledge collaborative driven.
作者
欧阳振华
肖曼曼
刘建
许乾海
鞠成润
OUYANG Zhenhua;XIAO Manman;LIU Jian;XU Qianhai;JU Chengrun(School of Mine Safety,University of Emergency Management,Yanjiao 065201,China;Key Laboratory of Drilling Technology in Mine Rescue,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100040,China)
出处
《华北科技学院学报》
2026年第1期106-116,共11页
Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology
基金
河北省自然科学基金重点项目(E2024508004)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52274120)
河北省自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(E2025508033)
中央高校基本科研业务费研究生科技创新基金资助(ZY20250113)。
