摘要
出口管制工具在实现安全目标的同时是否反向抑制出口贸易效率?本文基于2004—2023年联合国商品贸易数据库中美国与71个贸易伙伴的数据样本,采用随机前沿引力模型实证检验了美国管制清单对其自身出口贸易效率的影响。研究发现,美国对严格(中等)管制国家出口效率下降(提升),对宽松管制国家无显著影响,表明过严的出口管制可能导致贸易效率损失。基于结论,本文建议中国在构建出口管制体系时精准界定管制范围并建立动态调整机制,推动形成包容透明的国际管制协调机制,依托“一带一路”共建高效产业链供应链网络,并强化企业合规能力,以实现安全与发展的统筹。
Do export control measures,while achieving security objectives,inadvertently suppress export trade efficiency?This paper employs the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model to empirically examine the impact of U.S.control lists on its own trade efficiency,using data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database between 2004 and 2023,covering trade between the U.S.and 71 of its trading partners.The study finds that the U.S.experienced a decline in export efficiency to strictly controlled countries,an improvement to those with moderate control,and no significant impact on loosely controlled countries,indicating that excessively stringent export controls may lead to trade efficiency losses.Based on these findings,this paper recommends that China,in constructing its own export control system,should precisely define the scope of controls and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism.It is further proposed to promote the formation of an inclusive and transparent framework for international export control coordination,leverage the Belt and Road Initiative to develop efficient industrial and supply chain networks,and enhance corporate compliance capabilities to achieve a balanced approach to security and development.
作者
曾佳丽
姜辉
ZENG Jiali;JIANG Hui(School of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018,China)
出处
《对外经贸实务》
2026年第1期15-23,34,共10页
Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“美国出口管制与我国企业海外经营的合规风险研究”(19BGJ029)
教育部人文社科研究规划基金“美国出口管制对我国先进制造业的影响评估及应对策略”(25YJAGJW005)。
