摘要
本文运用国民账户和上市公司数据,使用自上而下法测算了我国2013—2022年企业所得税的流失率,并创新性地引入了一个结构性方程模型,用于修正现有数据在研究税收流失率时的部分误差,得到了我国企业所得税税收流失率的上限与下限。研究显示,我国2013—2022年企业所得税流失率在14.86%—33.83%,累计流失9.19万亿—12.83万亿元。其中,我国2013年企业所得税的流失率为20.52%—28.72%,2019年的企业所得税流失率为14.86%—20.37%。疫情前中国企业所得税流失率总体呈现下降趋势,但与英美发达国家相比仍处于较高水平。
This paper employs national accounts and listed company data to estimate China's corporate income tax erosion rate from 2013 to 2022 using a top-down approach.Innovatively,this paper introduces a structural equation model to correct for certain errors in existing data when studying tax erosion rates,thereby establishing upper and lower bounds for China's corporate income tax erosion rate.The findings reveal that China's corporate income tax erosion rate ranged between 14.86%and 33.83%during 20132022,resulting in cumulative revenue losses of CNY 9.19—12.83 trillion.Specifically,the tax erosion rate was 20.52%—28.72%in 2013and declined to 14.86%—20.37%by 2019,indicating an overall downward trend before the COVID-19 pandemic.However,these rates remain substantially higher than those observed in developed nations like the United States,where the corporate income tax erosion rate stood at just 11.58%during 20142016.
作者
田志伟
吴琪
Tian Zhiwei;Wu Qi(Institute of Public Policy and Governance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;College of Finance,Taxation and Investment,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《经济科学》
北大核心
2026年第1期69-87,共19页
Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“经济增长自发缓解财政压力问题研究”(项目编号:24FJYB019)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目“数字经济高质量发展的特征及驱动策略研究”(项目编号:2023110139)
上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目“人们如何理解税收政策?——基于税收感知和公平偏好的视角”(项目编号:CXJJ-2025-352)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
企业所得税
流失率
自上而下法
税收遵从
税收流失
corporate income tax
tax erosion rate
top-down methods
tax compliance
tax erosion
