摘要
在全球气候变化背景下,极端气象灾害对牧民的生计安全构成严峻挑战。其中,作为草原地区频发的主要气象灾害,雪灾具有频率高、强度大、影响广等特征,常导致牲畜死亡和严重经济损失,加剧了牧民的生计脆弱性。基于青海和内蒙牧区牧户家庭的实地调查数据,运用中国雪深长时间序列数据集与雪灾判别标准,识别雪灾事件及其严重程度,分析其对牧民畜牧业生计的影响,并评估牧民采用的多种适应性策略在缓解雪灾负面冲击方面的不同效用。研究结果表明:(1)雪灾对牧户的畜牧业收入有显著的负面影响,表现为雪灾每增加1d,牧户畜牧业收入平均下降0.14%。同时,雪灾持续天数与牲畜存栏量之间亦存在负相关关系。值得注意的是,上述负面影响在青海与内蒙研究区域间呈现出明显的空间异质性。(2)采用适应性策略能够有效缓解雪灾对牧民畜牧业生计的冲击。其中,提高畜种多样性、实施草地流转、购买畜牧业保险、修建牲畜棚圈等策略,对减轻雪灾造成的畜牧业收入损失和牲畜存栏量下降均发挥了显著的缓解作用。不同区域需结合其资源禀赋与社会经济条件,因地制宜地完善适应性策略并提供技术支持,以降低灾害损失,维系牧户生计水平。
Under the escalating global climate change,extreme weather events have increasingly posed severe threats to the livelihood security of pastoral communities and individual households.As a primary climate hazard in grassland regions,snow disasters are characterized by high frequency,great intensity,and extensive spatial coverage.They frequently trigger large-scale livestock mortality and substantial economic losses,thereby intensifying the vulnerability of herders'livelihood.This study investigates the effects of snow disasters on livestock-based livelihoods in pastoral regions of Qinghai and Inner Mongolia,China.Drawing on household-level field survey data and a long-term daily snow depth dataset,we identify the occurrence and severity of snow disaster events using established classification standards.We then examine how these events affect pastoral livelihoods,particularly household income derived from animal husbandry and livestock holdings.Furthermore,we assess the effectiveness of various adaptive strategies employed by local households to mitigate the adverse impacts of snow disasters.Our findings reveal two major insights.First,snow disasters have a statistically significant negative impact on herders'income from livestock production.Specifically,each additional day of snow disaster corresponds to an average decline of 0.14% in pastoral household income.There is also a clear negative correlation between the duration of snow disasters and the number of livestock maintained by households.Importantly,these adverse impacts show spatial heterogeneity across the study regions,with Qinghai and Inner Mongolia exhibiting distinct patterns in both the frequency of snow disasters and their socioeconomic consequences.Second,adaptive strategies play a critical role in buffering herders against the negative effects of snow disasters.Adaptive strategies such as livestock diversity,grassland leasing,livestock insurance,and shelter construction were found to be particularly effective in reducing income losses and mitigating declines in herd sizes.These findings highlight the importance of promoting adaptive capacity at the household level to enhance resilience to climate-induced risks.The effectiveness of these strategies varied by regions.In Qinghai,shelter construction and livestock insurance are effective,whereas in Inner Mongolia,a combination of multiple adaptive strategies jointly mitigated the negative impacts of snow disaster.In light of the regional disparities in natural resource endowments and socioeconomic conditions,we emphasize the need for place-based,context-sensitive policy support.Strengthening institutional mechanisms and providing technical assistance tailored to local realities will be essential to optimize the effectiveness of adaptation strategies.By doing so,it could contribute to reduce disaster-related losses and ensure the sustainability of pastoral livelihoods in the face of escalating climate variability.
作者
彭馨茹
陈奇
余露
PENG Xinru;CHEN Qi;YU Lu(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2026年第3期1373-1384,共12页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(72474193,72104213)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(20JZD013)。
关键词
草原
雪灾
气候适应
畜牧业
生计水平
grassland
snow disaster
climate adaptation
livestock husbandry
household livelihood
