摘要
草地物候特征及其对气候变化的响应是生态学研究热点。基于2001—2023年MODIS NDVI数据,采用动态阈值、回归分析、Theil-Sen趋势及Hurst指数等方法,分析中国天然草地物候时空动态特征及其气候因子响应机制。结果表明:中国天然草地返青期提前,枯黄期推迟,生长季延长,空间上由北向南、由西向东递增。Hurst指数预测显示,大部分区域草地物候将延续上述趋势,少数呈反持续性。生长季长度受年均温与降水共同影响,降水影响程度显著大于气温。热性、暖性及温性草地对降水更敏感,高寒草地对温度更敏感。研究为草地可持续管理及应对气候变化提供科学依据。
Under the background of climate change,research on vegetation dynamic changes and their responses to the environment has become one of the hot topics in ecology.As an important feature of biological responses to environmental changes,grassland phenology is a direct indicator of climate change.Systematic studies on the dynamic changes in grassland phenology and their responses to climate change are of great significance for ecosystem management and the formulation of adaptation strategies.China's natural grasslands have a wide distribution and complex and diverse climatic conditions,and their dynamic changes in response to climate change also exhibit significant regional differences and diversity in driving mechanisms.These characteristics make the research on the phenology of China's natural grasslands particularly important.From a national scale,this study systematically explored the characteristics of phenological changes in China's natural grasslands and their responses to climatic factors from 2001 to 2023 under the background of climate change,based on MODIS NDVI data from 2001 to 2023 and using methods such as univariate linear regression,Theil-Sen trend analysis,and Hurst index.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The start of the growing season(SOS)of China's natural grasslands showed an overall advancing trend,with a spatial distribution gradually advancing from north to south and from west to east;the end of the growing season(EOS)showed an overall delaying trend,with a spatial change opposite to that of SOS;the length of the growing season(LOS)of grasslands showed an overall increasing trend,with a spatial distribution gradually increasing from north to south and from west to east.(2)The Hurst index prediction shows that the grassland phenology in most regions of China will maintain the same trend as in the past in the future,that is,SOS will advance,EOS will delay,and LOS will extend,but a small number of regions exhibit anti-persistence.(3)The LOS of China's natural grasslands is significantly affected by the combined effects of annual average temperature and precipitation,and the impact of precipitation is overall greater than that of temperature.There are significant differences in the responses of different grassland types to climatic factors.Tropical,warm-temperate,and temperate grasslands show a stronger response to precipitation changes,while alpine grasslands are more sensitive to temperature.This study aims to provide a scientific basis for grassland ecosystem management and resource utilization,and at the same time provide an important regional supplement and reference for global grassland ecological research.
作者
薛凌宇
杨洁
唐庄生
周杰
岳磊
孟天乐
XUE Lingyu;YANG Jie;TANG Zhuangsheng;ZHOU Jie;YUE Lei;MENG Tianle(Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem,Ministry of Education,Gansu Agricultural University,Pratacultural College,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2026年第3期1208-1220,共13页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
甘肃农业大学公招博士科研启动基金项目(GAU-KYQD-2021-39)。
关键词
气候变化
草地生态系统
中国天然草地
物候特征
草地物候期
气候因子
climate change
grassland ecosystem
Chinese natural grasslands
phenological characteristics
grassland phenophases
climatic factors
