摘要
[目的]促进水生态韧性与城市发展高水平协同对实现流域生态保护与高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。[方法]基于2007-2022年黄河流域城市群面板数据,利用投影寻踪模型测度水生态韧性与城市发展综合水平,采用约束效应模型对两子系统的约束强度进行测算,进一步利用耦合协调度模型以及地理探测器模型分析水生态韧性与城市发展耦合协调度及其驱动因素。[结果]研究期内黄河流域城市群水生态韧性与城市发展综合水平呈缓慢上升趋势,但空间分异显著;两子系统的约束强度在时序上递减,整体仍处于强约束状态;黄河流域城市群水生态韧性与城市发展耦合协调度呈上升态势,空间失衡现象突出,呈现“南高北低”特征,且耦合协调等级以濒临失调与勉强协调为主;人口集聚、水资源赋存与水利用效率为核心驱动因子,因子交互作用呈现非线性加强或双因子增强特征,协同推动系统协调演进。[结论]应通过调控城市发展模式、强化水生态韧性,双轮驱动构建以水定城、量水发展的水城协同新格局。
[Objective]Promoting high-level synergy between water ecological resilience and urban development is important for achieving the ecological protection and high-quality development of the basin.[Methods]Based on the panel data of the Yellow River Basin urban cluster from 2007 to 2022,the projection tracing model was used to measure the water ecological resilience and the comprehensive level of urban development;and the constraint strength of the two subsystems was calculated using the constrained effect model.Further analysis of the coupling coordination and its driving factors of the water ecological resilience and urban development was conducted using the coupling coordination degree model and the geographical detector model.[Results]The water ecological resilience and overall level of urban growth of the Yellow River Basin urban cluster demonstrated a gradual rising trend during the study period,but there was significant regional variation.The constraint strength of the two subsystems decreased gradually in time sequence,and the overall system remained strongly constrained.The coupling coordination of water ecological resilience and urban development of the Yellow River Basin urban cluster showed an upward trend,and there was a notable spatial imbalance,exhibiting a"south high and north low"pattern.The"near-disbalance"and"barely coordinated"groups accounted for the majority of the coupling coordination level.Population aggregation,water resources,and water utilization efficiency were the core driving factors,and the interaction between these factors showed a non-linear strengthening or double factor enhancement feature,which synergistically promoted the system's coordinated evolution.[Conclusion]A new pattern of water-city synergy determined by water availability and capacity should be constructed by regulating the urban development mode that improves the water ecological resilience.
作者
孙斌
姜慧敏
薛建春
SUN Bin;JIANG Huimin;XUE Jianchun(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014010,China;Yellow River Jiziwan Development Research Institute,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014010,China;Research Center of Industrial Informationization and Innovation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014010,China)
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报》
北大核心
2026年第1期133-142,共10页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42061051)
内蒙古自治区哲学社会科学规划项目(2024NDA151)
内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地开放课题(KFSM-KDSK0206)。
关键词
黄河流域城市群
水生态韧性
城市发展
约束强度
耦合协调
urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin
water ecological resilience
urban development
constraint intensity
coupled coordination
