摘要
在矿床深部钻探孔壁失稳风险预测时,将钻探孔壁失稳的剪切破坏情况作为输入数据,预测风险指数,受到泛化误差的影响,出现钻参组合风险指数预测值与实际值不符的问题,影响风险预测精度。因此,设计了高岭土矿床深部钻探孔壁失稳风险动态预测方法。根据摩尔-库伦强度理论、德鲁克-普拉格强度理论,分析钻探孔壁的剪切破坏情况,建立矿床深部钻探孔壁失稳破坏风险准则。利用d指数、dc指数反映地层压力变化,通过风险准则预测深部孔壁失稳的钻压、钻速、扭矩、深度、井涌风险等钻参组合风险指数,并引入移动平均值的散度,量化风险指数。将风险指数预测的支持向量、超平面的最大间隔考虑在内,消除钻探孔壁失稳风险指标预测泛化误差,从而实现钻探孔壁失稳风险动态精准预测。最终的预测结果显示,钻压、钻速、扭矩、深度、井涌风险等钻参组合风险指数的预测值与实际值相近,预测误差相对较小,或可忽略不计,对于提升高岭土矿床深部钻探的安全性具有重要作用。
When predicting the risk of instability of drilling hole walls in deep mineral deposits,the shear failure situation of drilling hole wall instability is used as input data to predict the risk index.However,due to the influence of generalization error,the predicted value of drilling parameter combination risk index does not match the actual value,which affects the accuracy of risk prediction.Therefore,a dynamic prediction method for the risk of wall instability in deep drilling of kaolin deposits was designed.Based on the Mohr Coulomb strength theory and Drucker Prager strength theory,analyze the shear failure of drilling hole walls and establish risk criteria for instability and failure of deep drilling hole walls in mineral deposits.By using the d index and dc index to reflect changes in formation pressure,the drilling parameter combination risk index of drilling pressure,drilling speed,torque,depth,and well kick risk for deep hole wall instability is predicted through risk criteria,and the divergence of moving averages is introduced to quantify the risk index.Taking into account the support vector predicted by the risk index and the maximum interval of the hyperplane,the generalization error of the drilling hole wall instability risk index prediction is eliminated,thereby achieving dynamic and accurate prediction of drilling hole wall instability risk.The final prediction results show that the predicted values of the drilling parameter combination risk index,such as drilling pressure,drilling speed,torque,depth,and well kick risk,are close to the actual values,and the prediction error is relatively small or negligible,which plays an important role in improving the safety of deep drilling in kaolin deposits.
作者
李茂军
程成
Li Maojun;Cheng Cheng(Henan Fifth Geological Exploration Institute Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou,Henan 450000)
出处
《非金属矿》
2025年第5期100-104,共5页
Non-Metallic Mines
基金
2024年度公司自筹资金科研项目(WKKJ2025-0404)。
关键词
高岭土矿床
深部钻探
孔壁失稳
风险动态预测方法
钻参组合风险指数
kaolin deposit
deep drilling
Instability of pore wall
risk dynamic prediction method
drilling parameter combination risk
