摘要
农房和村庄建设现代化是实现乡村振兴,满足人民群众对美好生活向往的重要内容。装配式绿色农房项目风险评估是防范和控制项目风险、提升项目管理效率的关键。首先采用WBS-RBS方法识别装配式绿色农房风险因素清单。其次,基于专家调查法完成风险发生概率和损失程度评估,利用风险矩阵法对风险等级进行规范化处理。最后,使用贝叶斯网络法对项目风险进行评估,测度装配式绿色农房项目整体风险水平,通过敏感性分析得出各风险源的关键风险因素。选取长丰县吴山镇官府社区装配式绿色农房项目为例进行验证,研究结果表明,装配式绿色农房项目分为5大风险源、23项风险因素;项目整体风险值为1.704,处于中等风险水平,关键风险因素为激励政策和宣传力度、设计变更和施工技术、信息匮乏和农户需求不足、专业人才缺乏和农房维护不到位、原材料成本和农户出资意愿。研究结果可为装配式绿色农房项目风险防范和控制提供科学决策依据,进一步提升项目管理效率和水平。
Modernisation of rural housing and village construction is an important element in realising rural revitalisation and meeting the people′s aspirations for a better life.Risk assessment of Prefabricated green rural housing project is the key to prevent and control project risks and improve project management efficiency.This paper firstly adopts WBS-RBS method to identify the list of risk factors of prefabricated green rural housing.Secondly,based on the expert survey method to complete the assessment of the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of loss,the risk matrix method is used to normalise the risk level.Finally,the Bayesian network method is used to assess the project risk,measure the overall risk level of the prefabricated green rural housing project,and derive the key risk factors of each risk source through sensitivity analysis.In this paper,the prefabricated green rural housing project in Guanfu community,Wushan Town,Changfeng County,is selected as an example for validation,and the results show that prefabricated green rural housing project is divided into 5 major risk sources and 23 risk factors;the overall risk value of the project is 1.704,which is at a medium risk level,and the key risk factors are the incentive policy and publicity,design changes and construction technology,lack of information and insufficient demand from farmers,lack of professional talents and inadequate maintenance of farm buildings,cost of raw materials and farmers′willingness to contribute.The results of the study can provide a scientific decision-making basis for the risk prevention and control of prefabricated green rural housing project,and further improve the efficiency and level of project management.
作者
汤青慧
吴明月
李晓冬
李美华
万里洋
TANG Qinghui;WU Mingyue;LI Xiaodong;LI Meihua;WAN Liyang(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266000,China;Smart City Construction Management Research Center,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266000,China;Research Institute of Construction Credit and Risk Management,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266000,China;Technology and Industrialization Development Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development,Beijing 100000,China)
出处
《混凝土》
北大核心
2026年第1期133-139,144,共8页
Concrete
基金
国家自然科学基金(72304160)
山东省住房城乡建设科技计划项目(2022-R1-3)
住房和城乡建设部科技计划软科学项目(2022-R-048)。
